as will latin america due to each economy being forcibly linked to the us economy; at first by us military power while it’s still strong enough to do so and then later by each country’s oligarchy that refuses to let go of their control.
i’m convinced that this tide change will take centuries like the roman empire did and our version of constantinople renaming to instanbul will take the form of a us demographics change so thorough that it will become indiscernible from any other latin american country; canada will build a wall that would make trump envious because of it while insisting that it’s construction has nothing to do w it.
At this point many Latin American countries are already doing more trade with BRICS than the US. Brazil is a good example. The US is being cut off economically precisely because countries are increasingly routing trade around the US. Trump’s tariff war accelerated the whole process dramatically.
I’d also argue that you can’t make a direct comparison with the Roman times here. One big difference is that rate of communication and the speed of transportation are orders of magnitude faster. Back in the days of the Roman empire a message would take months to go from one part of the empire to another. Shipping goods around was far less efficient as well. Hence the rate of change was inherently slower than it is today.
There’s also an interesting phenomenon to be aware of here. Problems can build up under the surface for a long time as their effects get amortized by the inertia of the system. But eventually, you hit an inflection point where all that accumulated pressure triggers a rapid phase transition. The whole structure lurches into a new state almost overnight. That’s what Lenin meant about there being decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen.
as will latin america due to each economy being forcibly linked to the us economy; at first by us military power while it’s still strong enough to do so and then later by each country’s oligarchy that refuses to let go of their control.
i’m convinced that this tide change will take centuries like the roman empire did and our version of constantinople renaming to instanbul will take the form of a us demographics change so thorough that it will become indiscernible from any other latin american country; canada will build a wall that would make trump envious because of it while insisting that it’s construction has nothing to do w it.
At this point many Latin American countries are already doing more trade with BRICS than the US. Brazil is a good example. The US is being cut off economically precisely because countries are increasingly routing trade around the US. Trump’s tariff war accelerated the whole process dramatically.
I’d also argue that you can’t make a direct comparison with the Roman times here. One big difference is that rate of communication and the speed of transportation are orders of magnitude faster. Back in the days of the Roman empire a message would take months to go from one part of the empire to another. Shipping goods around was far less efficient as well. Hence the rate of change was inherently slower than it is today.
There’s also an interesting phenomenon to be aware of here. Problems can build up under the surface for a long time as their effects get amortized by the inertia of the system. But eventually, you hit an inflection point where all that accumulated pressure triggers a rapid phase transition. The whole structure lurches into a new state almost overnight. That’s what Lenin meant about there being decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen.
A really fun book on the subject that I can highly recommend incidentally https://research.fit.edu/media/site-specific/researchfitedu/coast-climate-adaptation-library/climate-communications/psychology-amp-behavior/Meadows-2008.-Thinking-in-Systems.pdf