Pretty fucked, but not as fucked as Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon, or Taiwan.
NATO will be fucked for a while if the US withdraws, but other NATO countries may ramp up military spending over time.
This situation is a worldwide danger. The US is/was a world power, it has/had the largest national economy in the world, it has the largest military in the world.
Previously, we could be concerned that democratic countries (including the US) weren’t putting enough pressure on authoritarian countries (like Russia, China, and North Korea) to improve. Now we have to worry that the US will actually become a fully authoritarian country, like Russia or China.
On the bright side… the rest of the world is realizing that being reliant on one country for military power and maintaining stability was a terrible idea. The UN and NATO only have power if the countries are willing to enforce those decisions, and if the US doesn’t, there isn’t really a comparable backup option. The US military was always the elephant in the room keeping things generally less extreme just by its existence and not reacting impulsively.
Just to add, it was always the US strategy to have the western world dependent on it for defence, it gave them a lot of soft and hard power and allowed for unopposed imperialism in “less important” (with a lot of irony) parts of the world.
If NATO fades into oblivion, that would be a great opportunity for European countries to make a news defense organization where a single country like Hungary or Turkey can’t play their political games.
I expect that the EU is going to have to claim defence competencies to continue the Union’s defense. There are way too many small countries in NATO that can’t contribute meaningfully to a military beyond some basic battalions and the EU needs something more robust than France and Poland.
Pretty fucked, but not as fucked as Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon, or Taiwan.
NATO will be fucked for a while if the US withdraws, but other NATO countries may ramp up military spending over time.
This situation is a worldwide danger. The US is/was a world power, it has/had the largest national economy in the world, it has the largest military in the world.
Previously, we could be concerned that democratic countries (including the US) weren’t putting enough pressure on authoritarian countries (like Russia, China, and North Korea) to improve. Now we have to worry that the US will actually become a fully authoritarian country, like Russia or China.
On the bright side… the rest of the world is realizing that being reliant on one country for military power and maintaining stability was a terrible idea. The UN and NATO only have power if the countries are willing to enforce those decisions, and if the US doesn’t, there isn’t really a comparable backup option. The US military was always the elephant in the room keeping things generally less extreme just by its existence and not reacting impulsively.
Just to add, it was always the US strategy to have the western world dependent on it for defence, it gave them a lot of soft and hard power and allowed for unopposed imperialism in “less important” (with a lot of irony) parts of the world.
If NATO fades into oblivion, that would be a great opportunity for European countries to make a news defense organization where a single country like Hungary or Turkey can’t play their political games.
I expect that the EU is going to have to claim defence competencies to continue the Union’s defense. There are way too many small countries in NATO that can’t contribute meaningfully to a military beyond some basic battalions and the EU needs something more robust than France and Poland.