Hmmm.

What I think we are witnessing is the start of involuntary decarbonization. The U.S. will probably do it’s imperialist war and delay it a bit longer by stealing Venezuela’s oil, while hoping for further collapse in Russia, so that oil can be taken too. Eventually, it will not be possible to continue kicking the can down the road, and the real suffering will begin.

Just a question of whether the climate crisis will progress to an involuntary population decrease first (which would further delay the fossil fuel crisis). Reminder that for all of the talk about energy transition, oil consumption continues to grow, not shrink.

What the market is pricing as cyclical volatility is actually a phase transition. Industrial civilization is shifting from an era of energy abundance to energy constraint. This is not temporary or reversible through technology or policy—it is thermodynamic reality asserting itself against monetary abstraction.

Pretty great article. Thanks for posting.

Perfect storm coming.

This part got me as recently in this same community I blieve someone was talking about diesel and a couple of us were talking about the roi of it. I was saying 3 to one might not be to bad because I know its close to tar sands but maybe I am wrong if what he says here is correct:

“The threshold for maintaining industrial civilization, according to biophysical economics research led by Dr. Charles Hall at SUNY, sits at approximately 10:1. Below this ratio, an increasing proportion of gross energy production must be reinvested into the energy system itself, leaving less for the broader economy. At 3:1, oil extraction becomes energy-negative for non-transport applications—you burn more energy extracting and refining the barrel than the barrel contains.”

The mention of the troughs got me. Gas is incredibly cheap right now when you look at inflation. It could easily double. At one point in 98 I could get gas at close to a dollar a gallon it was a crazy little period.