No the 1.5 the IPCC talks of, it is a rolling 30 year average. Were at 1.3 or so ?
I wonder how far we are from see a 2c year.
Next 10-15 yrs I’d guess … but a lot of that depends on what the Oceans do. If they even take up 10% less of the heat, over land temps get hot…quickly.
It’s interesting we seem ok with rolling the dice on all this.
Local anecdote, feels weird here in Tasmania, Australia. We’ve had the second ever recorded SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) over Antrarticia (happens over the Artic often) and cold air from Antarctica has moved north, littleraly getting snow at the start of the Austral summer. Been ongoing from July or so, not sure how long this lasts
We hope the increase is linear, but the way we are increasing emissions and decreasing carbon sinks, and removing emissions laws, it could go easliy logarithmic.
The only thing that will stop it is to kill off 1/4 to 1/3 of the people.
Here in the south of Brazil I’m also getting that same fucked up weather, this is the most comfortable summer I’ve ever had here, temps aren’t getting over 30C when this time last year it was above 35 and it’s getting me nervous
I was not talking about the ipcc rolling average so yes we have for what I was talking which is individual years. I point it out because we had years starting to breach 1c in 2010 and had officially breached it in 2015. 2024 is when we had the 1.5c year so we will likely have it recognized as being breached before 2030. Our trajectory is still acceleration so I bet we will be at 2c before 2040 unless we greatly change our ways. I mean even if we figure out fusion it will take a long time to get plants online and we still have folks fighting wind/solar over fossil fuels. Then of course even if we did a 180 and got super solar punk we are will into feedback loops with the melting of the permafrost, forest sinks turning to producers, and ocean warming.
No the 1.5 the IPCC talks of, it is a rolling 30 year average. Were at 1.3 or so ?
Next 10-15 yrs I’d guess … but a lot of that depends on what the Oceans do. If they even take up 10% less of the heat, over land temps get hot…quickly.
It’s interesting we seem ok with rolling the dice on all this.
Local anecdote, feels weird here in Tasmania, Australia. We’ve had the second ever recorded SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) over Antrarticia (happens over the Artic often) and cold air from Antarctica has moved north, littleraly getting snow at the start of the Austral summer. Been ongoing from July or so, not sure how long this lasts
We hope the increase is linear, but the way we are increasing emissions and decreasing carbon sinks, and removing emissions laws, it could go easliy logarithmic.
The only thing that will stop it is to kill off 1/4 to 1/3 of the people.
Here in the south of Brazil I’m also getting that same fucked up weather, this is the most comfortable summer I’ve ever had here, temps aren’t getting over 30C when this time last year it was above 35 and it’s getting me nervous
I was not talking about the ipcc rolling average so yes we have for what I was talking which is individual years. I point it out because we had years starting to breach 1c in 2010 and had officially breached it in 2015. 2024 is when we had the 1.5c year so we will likely have it recognized as being breached before 2030. Our trajectory is still acceleration so I bet we will be at 2c before 2040 unless we greatly change our ways. I mean even if we figure out fusion it will take a long time to get plants online and we still have folks fighting wind/solar over fossil fuels. Then of course even if we did a 180 and got super solar punk we are will into feedback loops with the melting of the permafrost, forest sinks turning to producers, and ocean warming.