An intelligence assessment completed shortly before the U.S. and Israel launched a war in Iran determined that military intervention is unlikely to result in regime change.

U.S. intelligence agencies widely failed to predict the rapid collapse of the Afghan government to the Taliban that transpired in 2021, with most assessments suggesting a much slower takeover. And in the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the ODNI, the Defense Department and the CIA wrongly estimated that Kyiv would quickly fall to a bigger and better equipped Russian military.