It’s pretty spot on. It takes years to get a fab up to speed, and they’ve been stealing US IP shipped over there for manufacturing for over a decade. They’ll try to annex Taiwan, and the US will be fucked. Jokes on them though, because TSMC has remote self destructive capabilities for their operations.
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China will not invade Taiwan. They might try to invade a country like the Philippines, almost crash the world economy but more than anything their own country in the process and realize Taiwan is completely out of reach.
China has terrible demographics, a real estate mark that is in free fall, high debt, is the target of tariffs in every major economy and a domestic market that can’t consume what they produce.
Economically they are fucked unless the US and EU throw them a life line and allow them to dump products in their market again… which is not going to happen no matter which party is in control. The best they can hope for at this point is a Japanese style lost decade. But I doubt they can manage even that outcome.
Bottom line is the CCP will do whatever is in the best interest of the CCP staying in control of China. Even if that decision is terrible for China itself.
If they are backed into a corner it doesn’t matter that Taiwan is out of reach. All that matters is that the CCP stays in control.
That is what makes this next ten years very dangerous.
TSMC won’t destroy itself. If the US destroys TSMC on its way out, that will crush the global economy.
Wow, you’re either not very smart, or are not aware of the state of the world.
Thanks for sharing this link, and I wonder if you could be nicer in your replies in the future
This is extremely funny and cartoonish. No one would benefit from this. As I said, the whole world would suffer.
Also, TSMC exists to make money. The Chinese government has overseen the largest economic growth of this century and would change little about the company’s daily operations.
The people who want this outcome of TSMC being destroyed are not Chinese or Taiwanese, they’re American. Like I said, it would be the Americans ordering the destruction of TSMC during reunification, as it was likely their idea to create these self-destruct mechanisms in the first place. Some ally we Americans would be if on our way out we crippled Taiwanese industry and sabotaged the world economy.
What the taiwanese want is sovereignty.
The threat of blowing up TSMC if invaded helps with their sovereignty because it both avoids the Chinese attacking them and helps the Americans defend them.
Over the course of its history, the island of Taiwan has gone through multiple eras.
First it was an independent island with native peoples who had their own languages.
Then they were colonized by the Chinese and became part of China.
Then they were occupied by the Japanese.
Then the island became a safe haven for the losers of China’s civil war. Those losers are the foundation of Taiwan’s modern politics. Until about 30 years ago they claimed they were the actual rulers of China. Now they claim they’re a unique and independent nation.
Most importantly they were a military base of a foreign power (the United States) up until 1979. Now the US media is talking about supplying nuclear weapons to the Taiwanese separatist government. The USA is also engaging in trade war with China. The US and Turkey helped recruit, arm and train terrorists from China to fight in proxy wars in the Middle East. These terrorists have threatened to return to China to stage a revolt against the government.
It’s unsurprising that China wants Taiwan to become reunified with the mainland. Since day one they’ve been a security threat. Like Hong Kong, the only future for Taiwan is reunification. If the separatist government decides to reignite the civil war, there might not be an island of Taiwan in the future. They can lose gracefully or they can detonate the vest and destroy themselves and their relatives on the mainland. The people who lose will be the Chinese people and their trading partners around the world who benefit from their stability.
My main point is that none of this is happening in a vacuum. No matter how much we as foreigners are told that we’re ambassadors of freedom by propping up a lost cause government and helping to drive a wedge to split their country, all the rest of the world sees is how craven we are.
When the US had its civil war, the North and South reunified. This is how civil wars end. Taiwan is not exempt from the rules of history.
Notice how you didn’t even consider the possiblity of just china and Taiwan being separate countries. Which is how many civil wars end (the US civil war is not the only civil war). It is also the ending that causes less harm overall. The taiwanese don’t die, and the Chinese don’t “give in to separatists”, because they are not separatists. You can’t separate from a state you never belonged to. The taiwanese were never part of communist china.
To pretend the Taiwanese are not separatists is historically incorrect. As noted above, they only pivoted to calling themselves independent decades after the civil war. Before their claimed independence they claimed to be the actual rulers of China (to them the civil war was still ongoing). Only in the fantasy land of the Taiwanese can you claim to be the rulers of a nation and then decide you’re no longer part of that nation.
So had everywhere else. What are you on about?
You do realize, don’t you, that the majority of Taiwanese do not want reunification? Well, I mean, they want reunification with their party in power and don’t want CCP-controlled reunification.
In one poll, 63% said they would personally fight if China tried to force reunification. In another poll, the VAST majority wanted to maintain the status quo. Some of those want to keep the status quo and decide later, some want to keep it forever, some want to keep it but start moving toward independence. In that poll, only around 2% want reunification now, and only 5% want full independence now. In another poll, 49% wanted full independence and 27% wanted status quo, while only 12% wanted reunification.
It’s a no-win for them.
They lose the war and pull the trigger, and everyone from the janitor on up is prosecuted by the PRC as saboteurs.
They win the war and have blown up the factory? Goodbye #1 export product.
Its only value is as a hindrance to peaceful negotiation. The threat is actually more useful as a “we’ll pull the plug if you abandon your defence commitments” rather than “we’ll pull the plug when attacked”. That bludgeon prevents Western powers from seeking a managed, Hong Kong/Macao sryle reunification strategy.
Or the US simply uses several Ohio-class submarines to glass the factories. Hooyah Navy. Hopefully take out as much of the PLA as possible along the way. Let them try ruling over a pile of dust and ash.
The US seeks to use Taiwan to threaten China and if it can’t it will destroy the island to hurt both the Chinese and the Taiwanese. This extremist viewpoint is similar to a bitter ex who kills his girlfriend to keep her from loving another man.
Man, I love how people give no agency to companies like this. Mainly because it shows they’re entirely ignorant of the state of the world outside of their very limited knowledge and incorrect beliefs about it.
You are saying tsmc agency is voluntarily blowing up all of taiwan assets?
If your comment ever starts with “are you saying”, the answer is no.
And also
Well, not “crush”, but I suppose the “AI” hype and that of cryptocurrencies will stop to think for 5 years or so.
I’m looking forward to this. Some incentive for developers to stop expecting faster machines every month is welcome.
A contributing factor in all of this is that US manufacturers have spent the better part of the last 30 years turning their engineering departments into glorified parts replacers. A complaint I have heard from nearly every electrical/electronics engineer that I’ve known is that “We don’t design things anymore. Now we just spend most of our time trying to find replacements for chips that we can no longer get.”
From what I can tell, from my very limited perspective, there has been a significant lack of investment in engineering capabilities and a resulting lack of innovation for a long time. As usual, short term thinking is expensive in the long run. We’re only just beginning to find out how expensive.
I’ve tried explaining to people that I think the best way to fight globalization is a well educated population. Then the theory is, we’d be able to make more domestic advancements that other countries would have to try and keep up with.
Why fight globalization? It’s inefficient to make everything domestically, and as long as your supply chain is sufficiently diversified (including some domestic production), it’s not an issue.
Keep the good jobs domestic, outsource the bad ones.
Your end summary is really what I mean. With an educated population, you keep the good jobs and let the rest of the world handle everything else
Replaceable parts was the greatest industrial innovation in the history of the world. It’s the single most important reason that millions of people can afford refrigeration, stoves, lightbulbs, TVs, cell phones, cars, and everything else in the modern world. Without replaceable parts these things would only be luxuries for kings and queens.
The problem of engineering departments being “glorified parts replacers” is a social problem: elite overproduction. Society simply does not need millions of engineers (or lawyers or historians or urban planners for that matter)!
China has their in-house Longson chip and can use Risc-v. This has the potential of accelerating a switch from x86/arm to more open standards.
China’s biggest hurdle is not the ability to make a chip, but more the ability to get good yields. It’s more or less running into the same problem Intel did with 10nm, and what samsung has and the main reason why basically every chip maker is behind tsmc on bleeding edge.
This has the potential of accelerating a switch from x86/arm to more open standards.
hardware is a two way street, the other is getting a proper OS environment and people to be behind said projects. It’s not like RISC-V designs aren’t currently available.For example, Pine64’s risc-v options have been available in the market for quite some time now. And DeepComputing is trying to release its framework laptop equivalent board using a StarFive JH7110. It will only accelerate if there is a bodies available to create the ecosystem in it, and as of the moment, not many developers are putting effort into making it an ecosystem.
An example of why hardware/software need to coexist is Snapdragon X Elite on Linux, as well as Asahi Linux(Arm based Macs on Linux). Neither are complete projects and do not hit the same performance their native OS versions hit yet remotely(nor efficiency). Theres a LOT you have to do to optimize hardware to the OS, and that just doesn’t happen instantly.
Seriously might be more advantageous to China (and the world) to infiltrate TSMC so they don’t have to re-invent the wheel.
If China had access to TSMC’s secrets, TSMC would need to compete even harder which would result in better products and lower prices for everyone!
its partially tsmc, the other half is getting ASML EUV machines, which require getting past US/Dutch trade secrets.
ASML is the top level grip on edge node manufacturing because not all companies at the post 14nm wall believed that it would arrive in a timely matter. TSMC was the one that took that bet and why its the biggest.
So that’s right up the alley of the incoming administration then?
No carrot. Only stick.
Lmao, they’ve been outsourcing their shit to factories in China for the last couple decades. They really think these factories won’t learn a thing or two?
