I mean there is a fucking valley between now and 2020.
First, he’s not the President. That gave him an overwhelming advantage in trying to steal that election. He held power.
Second, we’re looking out for it this time. And its not like Trump is actually off the hook for the last go at it either.
So yes, take heed and pay attention. But also, the difficulty of what he frankly almost go away with the first time (if he would have been able to get Pence to play ball; if the inssurectionists would have strung Pelosi up on a gallows, where might we be?). The difficulty of stealing an election while not in power and while we’re looking for it. OF course he’s going to claim it was stolen. But fuck him. We don’t have to regard his claims.
he has cult members in multiple states and at the local level who are in charge of elections or ballot certification or somewhere in that process; and judges at all levels, some of whom have already ruled in his favor.
it is unlikely but still a non-zero chance that enough bullshit gets piled on the process in enough places that neither candidate gets the minimum 270 electoral college votes required when they’re officially counted and certified at the start of the next congressional session.
if that were to be the case, then congress votes to choose the president (house, each state gets one vote–dc gets no vote; 26 to win) and vice president (senate, 51 to win).
I mean its gotta be close for that to be relevant. I sure af hope its been sobering to BM how well Kamala has been doing post Biden. Trump is actually deeply unpopular and there was no reason for the Democrats to have ever not been leading in this election. Biden was a completely unforced error.
So I think its realistic and necessary for Kamala to have a convincing victory, and I think she’s on the road to demonstrate that.
The biggest difference is that right now, Trump is not the president. In the week before J6 when it was all shaping up, it was clear he was going to try to do everything to not leave power. He should have been arrested on January 7th. That all is what it is.
What I expect to happen is this:
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Donald will double down on the only strategy he knows, and will chew his way through a series of increasingly brief campaign managers whilehe tunes out while he leans into personality attacks and conspiracy theories, galvanizing his MAGA core and alienating an increasing share of Republicans
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He will continue to chase moderates towards Kamala, expanding into the right, eventually even to include a small handful of politically savvy MAGA types compelled to denounce him to save face
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Election night is a drubbing in the popular vote with record turnout and a similar map to 2020 with maybe even one or two new blue states
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Donald will trot out a litany of accusations of interference and refuse to concede, his base will further contract
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MAGA protests will quickly turn violent and Donald’s refusal to denounce his few remaining supporters will pretty much sever MAGA from what’s left of Republicans
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a few MAGA election officials delay certifying anywhere possible, exhausting all legal and some illegal means of avoiding certification
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At least one or two of these delays will result in a standoff between county and state government or even state and federal
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All of this likely set against a backdrop of sporadic but increasing violence and rioting by the remaining hardest of the hard core MAGA, with right wing militias playing a large role and even intervening on behalf of at least one of the aforementioned standoffs at one point or another
I’d be curious which of those elements you find to be the most far fetched. I know in their totality they sound like a crazed paranoid rant, but given our recent history, and the insane trajectory we are on, this doesn’t really seem like that big of a stretch to me.
I dont think any of this is unreasonable, but I honestly think if he would have done some of things last go round, it probably would have been a successful coup.
Democrats in particular, but also the entire intelligence state was caught completely flat footed to information that was widely available on OSINT or other very leaky data channels.
I can’t imagine they are as naive as they were four years ago? But then again.
Points one and two, I agree. Point three, we shall see but things seem possible again. Trump is deeply unpopular.
On MAGA and MAGA protests.
The energy simply isn’t there for Donald this time. This is a key feature 2020 had that the current climate doesn’t. White nationalism and BLM were going at it in the streets, and the energy of the Trump movement gave groups like patriot front, the 3%'rs, PB, etc a place to hide. If you are going to keep something like that going, you have to put points on the board. You need W’s and he lost big time in 2020. Its the nature of all movements that they wax and wane. I mean look how BLM collapsed after 2020. You need big groups to hide militants. That just is not going to happen this time. Its a different environment and Trump has a core group of supporters that will show up, but it will be nothing like we saw in 2020. This exposes the militant elements in greater relief.
Congress and capitol police won’t be fucking around this time and DC will be on lockdown. Every paper clip is going to get a high degree of scrutiny. A fake slate of electors isn’t going to make it through, and a state refusing to certify is going to get clapped. Of all of these, I think they are all reasonable, but this is the only one that gives me real pause. Our system is very diffuse and yeah, there are a lot of wackos. Its not that hard for one idiot to throw a wrench in the works.
Again though, the problem Trump has is that he’s not in power. SO what if something takes longer to figure out? Biden or Harris will still be in office at that time. Thats the real changemaker. A smoke bomb or confusion of results doesn’t work in Trumps favor they way it did in 2020.
If anything I’d say its time to get back on the intelligence channels and start reading the tape to keep an eye on things. I could see some militants disrupting some stuff here and there, but in general, the MAGA movement has fizzled. It doesn’t have bodies in the streets like it did in 2020, and Trump would need that for the above to be effective.
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He is still holding power though. Look how he was able to block aid to Ukraine for 6 months. Or how he tanked the border bill that actually had everything Republicans were asking for.
He is not a president, but he still controls people in powerful positions.
Yes, This is important to acknowledge. He also has an extremely complicit supreme court who are a bit over their handle bars and may suffer consequences if he isn’t elected. So yes.
However… If its clear, and I do think it will be, that he hasn’t won, he flips from being an asset to being a liability. As they say, if you are aiming for the King, don’t miss. They won’t have the ability to throw down smokebombs (read: misinformation, lawsuits, etc) in the way that they did around 2020.
What Trump offers is a path to power. If he can’t/ doesn’t win the election, his only offering is moot. And the bodies along the way are there to see (look at Pence, Giuliani, etc… Trump uses people and dumps them).
Its something we need to be 100% paying attention to. But its a far far more difficult lift this time around than last.
