The popular vote isn’t going to be close, Trump hasn’t won a popular vote yet.
The electoral college vote looks like it’s going to be a squeaker.
My #1 prediction is that voting will be down from 2020 because Covid increased voting by mail and we don’t have that this time around. Generally Republicans do better when fewer people vote.
But let’s run the numbers and check the map:
Arizona: Toss Up, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +5, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Georgia: Trump +1, +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina: Toss Up, Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania: Harris +3, +5, +6, Trump +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Harris +1, +3, +5, Tie, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +4, +5, +7, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Overall, Harris looks a lot stronger than last week. Even losing Georgia, clawing back PA from Trump and moving Wisconsin fron toss-up to Harris gives her EXACTLY 270.
On the map:
I think this is the first time since Biden dropped out that any candidate has hit the magic 270 number.
The United States doesn’t have the same system as other countries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_system