• 2 Posts
  • 278 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • But there isn’t a single election, there are 51 separate elections, whose results are combined in a way which gives Republicans an advantage. I will continue to maintain the election will be close until Harris starts to pull even in states like Florida and Texas. Even if she doesn’t win those, if those states are closer to even that’s an indication that Harris ought to win all the toss-up states.

    But unless that happens, I will assume that the election is a toss-up. And not just the election itself, but also the post-gane show of certification.





  • NYT says this switch to pagers has been recent, after the Oct 7 attacks last year, when Hezbollah suspected that Israel was spying on the cell network, and using it to locate targets for strikes. So all these pagers got distributed to Hezbollah-affiliated people in short order . This system doesn’t use commercial networks, and has been called a “closed” network by the NYT.

    If all that is true, then that means anyone with one of these closed-network pagers got it from being involved with Hezbollah in the first place.




  • Trump may have a hard ceiling of “likely voters”, but my fear is that there are a lot of unlikely/“low information” voters that are backing Trump.

    They are simply not paying attention to anything but their paycheck, which is not rising as fast as prices are. They remember all the chaos of the Trump Presidency, but also remember when they could afford rent.

    The same thing happened in 2020. I keep reminding people that 12 million more people voted for Trump in 2020 than 2016. Those people looked at all the chaos of the Trump Presidency and said “Yup! We need more of that”, after not caring 4 years prior.

    Polls don’t matter, votes do. And thanks to the EC, votes in certain zip codes are more impactful than others. Harris not only needs to get good turnout, but get good turnout in the right zip codes to win this.



  • The equity structure for these tokens will be that 20% of the project’s tokens are allotted to the founding team, which includes the Trumps, 17% of tokens are set aside for user rewards, and the remaining 63% of the coins will be made available for the public to purchase, said founder Zak Folkman.

    I don’t think there’s any guarantee at all that all 63% of the coins “allocated to the public” will be released at first. They will probably release a fraction of that, and the constrained supply will not be enough to meet the demand from the Saudi and Russian governments looking to funnel money to Trump.

    So the price will zoom up, and then they will decide whether to sell their own stash or more of the public stash into that surge. The end game is to harvest as much cash as they can from these foreign actors. And if any loyal Trumpists happen to lose their piddly life savings in the meantime, that’s a chance Trump is willing to take.