“Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming.”

https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010

This is a paper that relates to this topic. They are looking at multiple breadbasket crop failures that happen in multiple regions and different staple crops at the exact same time.

Under 2° of warming, for example corn crops go from failures eveey 15 years to a failed crop frequency once every 2 or 3 years. Rain and temperature issues also can reduce wheat and soybean and rice crops. Eventually these uncorrelated events have a 100% chance of lining up and all landing on the same year across multiple regions.

I guess the big idea of the paper is that a warming planet won’t be this even dependable reduction in crop yields but a series of major unpredictable crop failure and food shocks.

I think that means that withi a 45% reduction (as in the main article) we should think of that as a rolling average. Some years could be very bad and others less dire. But expect major instability.

The USA national debt is a good proxy measure.

The world outside the USA needed us dollars for petroleum and international trade. One of the major us enterprises has been to supply these funds in exchange for goods and services.

It is currently running at $1T every 100 days.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/the-us-national-debt-is-rising-by-1-trillion-about-every-100-days.html

This means the world is selling more to the USA than equal exchange. They take those dollars away and buy oil and other international trade, or they hold the money. The us is being paid to create the currency that is used.

Frankly, the growing national debt is not as big a problem as the alternatives.

Both problems can happen at the same time.

Links from the article:

A panel hosted by the author https://youtu.be/wy1JNM9WtmI

https://www.wedonthavetime.org/events/davos2025#%2Fchannel%2F6696%2Fivhe6wdnjjiue527obxwivrykb3g6tln%3Ftab=pl

There are some community currencies that allow time/hour exchanges / banking / bartering. I think an explicit idea of these systems is to allow for a local area to strengthen/harden its resources and community. For example someone can help watch children but get a home improvement in return…the ways that these exchanges work all invest in the community.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_community_currencies_in_the_United_States

Another one that comes to mind is/was the Occupy movement. Particularly in the emergency response to hurricane Sandy, Occupy actually took on providing the services of government and was more effective than the real government agencies that were distributing aid.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Sandy

Quite a few intentional communities have tried to become a test tube / model for a greater reorganization of society.

Here is a mini documentary about a large intentional community…the founder speaks about how they navigated all the administrative and legal hurdles. They also talk about how the governance works.

https://youtu.be/n-uH36w9xg8

In general, I think that all systems transform when they are replaced. If there was an alternative option then I think the bigger system could fall away, but actually I think thats unlikely to be possible until collapse is well under way. A major feature of the current paradigm is that it’s a comprehensive global system – the bigness and all encompassing capitalism would be hard to come up with an alternative for…and basically if there is a new system where you can’t get a widget from a foreign land where you don’t know anybody and dont have that currency and dont speak the language, that system makes our lives harder. Our current system does that with zero effort now.

Some things that just have high prices are worth it, because all the alternatives can be worse.

You jump to the assumption they weren’t on an innocent beach holiday in Russia? You’re paranoid.

JD Vance’s whole phone was already hacked by the Chinese state. He’s part of this chat thread.

(Salt Typhoon… They hacked the entire phone system and infiltrated Trump and Vance’s phones.)

Whether it was “signal” or not is missing the bigger context, this fucker is a total buffoon of incompetence because this is time #2 within a short span of time. He literally is stupid.

At least Trump’s bathroom doesnt delete the documents.

The only way to respond is to blitzkrieg the media cycle and get them talking about something else outrageous.

Yeah, its a circular economy. So for example, all your federal workers spend, save, invest and pay taxes in the country.

I think this a good small example: https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/new-report-shows-nasas-75-6-billion-boost-to-us-economy/

NASA budget is about $25B

That money (which is respent in the national economy) adds $75B to GDP. 3:1 multiplier effect.

So by finding NASA by $25B you get most of it back again in taxes AND you get all the jobs, services, technology etc. Its a huge list of benefits that is basically paying for itself. That’s 300,000+ jobs and $10B in more downstream taxes…that counts against the $25B budget…it is really a net $15B tax spend to bring in $75B in GDP increase.

If you cut this program, you shrink the overall economy, drop.GDP AND lower future tax revenues. So when the money these programs spends is multiplied out through the economy in a circular way, the high price tag is a useless / pointless way to analyze the value of the return. You need to have the full systemic analysis or you’re just doing damage…

This is every government program. My own small business I can track higher sales when SSI checks go out. The grocery store lines are longer and all the seniors are lining up to get groceries when the checks arrive…

And even if you “save money”, what would you turnaround and do with it if not fund NASA and social security? Do they have a better idea? What else do we need that money for?

The common wisdom in the reseller community about PayPal is to never leave any funds inside the paypal wallet, do not use them for large transactions and do not use them to transmit money that you depend on.

You can read many horror stories online about people who “trust” PayPal and then get blindsided and lose their money with no way to appeal or recover.

There seems to be a pattern where PayPal just steals large account balances and burns those clients. PayPal will take money for no reason or without providing any reason at all. They just fall back to “we are a service you agreed to use, we are not a bank or financial institution”. There is a whole reddit community with people commiserating. Lots of people lose their rent money, their business funds, their huge consultant contract payments, their school tuition etc. Often using paypal without imagining that its not a real company with a phone center and a system you can go to for an appeal, but some rinkydink black box of thievery with no real human contact and no legal presence anywhere you can tackle them and make them accountable.

eBay is the man in the middle between buyers and sellers, and overall the total marketplace is in decline in terms of buyers, dollars and sales volume. There is a situation where eBay has this shrinking pool of people spending money, and so they have enshittified their system by breaking search results and charging sellers to advertise/promote their listings. Essentially, surplus sellers compete to purchase the scarce buyer now. Its a doom loop. EBay is cutting a larger and larger piece of the sales and this makes everything on there more expensive, which makes the sales dwindle…rinse and repeat.

In both cases it is hard to understand why all their competitors aren’t beating them. For example, things like Craigslist or Facebook marketplace have a very lucrative opportunity and a big head start, but nobody has really challenged eBay…its confusing. They botg killed their golden goose but somehow they keep going as.zombie businesses.

What are the odds that they saved the US money and kept it a total secret rather than to brag about it.

So low that I think this is a smoking gun that they failed to do so. We now know it didn’t work out because they are quiet.

Do all scenarios show a completely melted north and south pole by year 3000?

Not to mention that, in this case, the phone network was known to hacked and infiltrated by adversaries.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_Typhoon

This hack included JD Vance’s phone who was part of this chat group.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/us/politics/trump-vance-hack.html

These peoples phones shouldn’t be considered any more secure than a public bathroom.

Presidents were above the law for the final year of Biden’s term.

He chose to do nothing.

This fuck-up was strictly due to the fact that they’re incompetent morons just randomly inviting people to group chats and shit with no guardrails.

No.

These fuckwits were handling classified and top secret information in the open on their cell phones.

It doesn’t matter what specific app they used. This is not about the technology. You missed the point.

My friend said that if Steam and Netflix both went down at the same time there would be huge riots. I am not sure they are wrong.

What odds are they giving for “shitty rocket accidentally blows up on launch”?

There is no biological difference between innate and acquired immunity, right? Right?