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Cake day: 2023年6月16日

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  • It’s been over 20 years, if they did live action they’d have to probably ruin it by aging up every character 20 years. Also have to tone down action or else have them “mentor” a younger crew, which would probably also ruin it.

    Animation could be very good. I don’t get why you’d immediately be dismissive.

    As various franchises have played with how to resurrect an “older” franchise, extending the original cast seems to be the winner, but this show wouldn’t survive the age up probably.


  • That coup attempt had zero military involvement. No one did anything to try to manage “loyalty” in the military or law enforcement organizations.

    Now they’ve more aggressively asserted authority in those areas. Project 2025 folks saw an opportunity that was squandered with Trump’s first term and has to some extend seized upon it.

    Of course with ICE being the most “successful” example, there can still be some hope, but they are loads closer to having the right pieces in place now than anyone did in Trump’s first term. Basically Trump inciting his random followers with no institutional support at all first time around.

    Hitler’s first coup attempt failed too, and we all know how that went.


  • While that’s a narrative that sounds nice and reassuring, the data is more depressing than that.

    The percentage of voting eligible people that actually came out for the election in 2024 was second only to 2020 since they’ve tracked VEP, and I think we can all agree 2020 had a whole lot of special circumstances. The easiest election ever to cast a ballot in, under the most duress the citizens have known, with folks having plenty of spare time to vote. It enjoyed an anomolous high turnout but those circumstances evaporated by 2024.

    The last time we saw arguably higher turnout other than 2020 was the 1960s.

    We did not have some anomolous low turnout in 2024 to blame, the fairly typical voting turnout actively preferred this…


  • I’m hoping you are at least right about failing to coup, though given enough runway, I worry if they can consolidate violent white nationalist men into their military structure to pull something off. Like what we have seen with ICE, though their ineptitude gives me some solace that they may not be effective.

    I guess my concern is that the military folks taking the “high road” respectfully resign and leave the mess and empower the “whatever it takes to get what we want” crowd to take over.

    But yes, I have previously thought the easiest way to make things better is to make them a whole lot worse first. Easier to know how to fix things when you break them in the first place. I thought this year would be the year of reversing course but obviously not, so if they don’t coup, then they have to reverse course by 2028 to reap your scenario.


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    3 个月前

    So far, not a single special election has flipped.

    The three incumbent democrats were succeeded by democrats, the three incumbant republicans have been succeeded by republicans, and there are three TBD house special elections to go.

    MTG’s seat looks pretty thoroughly to stay GOP (yes, technically a Democrat won the first round, but only because the GOP was more split). Sum up the Democrat votes and it doesn’t quite touch 40%,

    Sure, most of them show about a 10 point gain for the democrats, though one of the races in Texas actually had some points lost for the democrat candidate, losing 5 points of their lead.


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    3 个月前

    Here’s the thing, there is no realistic outcome that denies the Trump administration their strategy.

    To pull off overruling a veto or removing him from office, they’d need 2/3rds of Senate. They are really unlikely to even get a simple majority in the Senate, given the seats in play this year.

    So even if democrats win and the results are actually honored, the administration ignores congress while simultaneously blaming congress for how ineffective everything will be.

    If they want to assert a dictatorship, they can still execute on that before 2028 even if they let the house be blue and even if the senate is up to 2/3rds blue.




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    3 个月前

    This pic is dumb, it’s poly market.

    Second, a “sweep” is absolutely impossible. No party will win every single race.

    Even if you declare you only count two “contests”, the house and the Senate, I would argue it would be hard to call it a total victory if Trump can veto and the Democrats don’t have the votes to remove from office.

    If you look at the Senate with a vague rationality, the GOP seats up for election are mostly “safe” seats. Yes some are fairly prone to swing, but not enough to even get a majority. Most of them are stars like Kansas, where there zero percent chance of a Democrat win. Sure there are some like NC, where I totally anticipate a flip, but I just don’t see enough possibilities to a majority.





  • One of my least favorite was a manager who kept calling department meetings to rattle off some idea they had for an hour, and while in most meetings people keep laptops open to take care of work while nothing relevant to them was being said, in a meeting with that manager, no one dare should see any sort of screen and must be really present for the manager…