Three caution points for Democrats…
- Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
- Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
- Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May
How about the caution point of POLLS ARE USELESS?
And FYI Trump is waaaaay less popular now. My neighborhood is a maga stronghold. Not a single Trump flag by any house this year, but plenty of Kamala (there were no Biden signs here last election).
Maybe spend your time doing something that isn’t as useless as posting about polls
I’m in a battleground state and haven’t seen a single Harris (or Biden) sign. Just more and more Trump signs going up as we get closer to the election.
Don’t get complacent.
“Here’s some doomer poll data, but I put in a comment that the polls don’t matter” is a heck of a contradiction.
They’re not totally useless, they’re just useless as a prediction mechanism. You can still use them to examine change over time.
In other words, polls can never tell you who is likely to win, they’re terrible at that. But by looking at changes in polling over time, you can see how attitudes change over time, which can be useful in certain contexts.