“Donald Trump is the first US President since World War Two to challenge the role that his country set for itself many decades ago. And he is doing this in such a way that, to many, the old world order appears to be over - and the new world order has yet to take shape.
The question is, which nations will step forward? And, with the security of Europe under greater strain than at any time almost in living memory, can its leaders, who are currently scrabbling around, find an adequate response?”
I think, long term, we’re going to see leadership coming from France (naval, air), Poland (ground), Sweden (also naval and air), and the Baltic states (intelligence/cyberwarfare). I hope Germany ends up contributing meaningfully, but I’m honestly not sure they’ll get out of the way of their own bureaucracy. I know they are doing a huge defense spending increase, but I also recall the last time they did that in 2022 and how it somewhat flamed out as a result of said bureaucracy (not to mention the fact that they refused to lift a finger until the US started doing something first).