Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to slash the national deficit and curb debt during his second term, but a sobering assessment of the nation’s financial health by one of the federal government’s premier fiscal watchdogs suggests Trump 2.0’s policies have not only collectively pushed the federal deficit significantly higher, but put the country on an unsustainable path.
In its latest budget and economic outlook, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan federal agency, revised its cumulative deficit projection for the 2026–2035 period upward by $1.4 trillion compared with its forecast from just a year ago.
“Our budget projections continue to indicate that the fiscal trajectory is not sustainable,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said in a statement, noting the agency’s latest projections. Under laws passed in Trump’s first year back in office, the national debt in 2030 will surpass the historic high of 106% of GDP, which it reached in 1946. Meanwhile, the balance of Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2032, one year earlier than the CBO projected last January.
My bet is that as the economy falters further and the world abandons US treasuries, he’s going to make things even worse with QE and forcing rate cuts. Problem is that I have no idea what to do with that prediction. Plant beans and stock up on iodine?
I am investing in ways to make my future costs lower. For example, I have solar on my house. It covers about half of my bill, and will for the foreseeable future. I am looking into additions to solar, as I live in Alaska, and need to figure out winter times.
I am looking into heat pumps, they aren’t great for dead of winter, but they might eliminate shoulder season heat costs.
We buy the best quality, and locally produced food and goods we can, to help support our health and our community resilience.
Buy once, cry once, whenever we can, because replacement of stuff will be harder.
We live beneath our means, and take the money we save being boring and pay off debt, so that we truly own what is ours, because someday, paying a mortgage or for a vehicle, might be too difficult.
Practice using what you have, instead of buying stuff to solve your problem. Ingenuity is something that can be learned and practiced, but isn’t something that comes naturally to people.
Learn to make stuff, or about your surroundings. If you live in a place you can forage, learn about what you can eat in your area to supplement what you have to buy.
Plan to be a poor person, because that is a situation that is likely, and that you can survive.
Most people will not make it, if we wind up in a situation where you are dependent on what you plant, and goods you stock up on. That stuff is just prolonging the inevitable. Total independence is just not a thing most people are prepared for mentally, or have the skills to pull off. So, prepare for a future where luxuries are limited, material goods are in short supply, and you have to figure out how to make do with what you have.
For example, I have solar on my house.
I was looking at the same. Some naysayer I know was saying it would never pay back before the panels “failed”.
Of course, he was assuming that the panels would fail with 100% certainty at a certain period of time. He was also assuming that electricity costs are going to stay stagnant. If I have a battery backup installed, that obviously rejiggers things, and I’m assuming they not last very long, either at least when it comes to the timelines one talks about in regards to things like houses.
I am definitely not going to assume that, LOL. That hasn’t even been true in the past year alone, nevermind what some of the more negative predictions have for how costs will be impacted by things like data centers.
Yeah early photovoltaic solar panels weren’t great, in the same way early ev batteries weren’t great. They’ve become far longer lasting and more efficient. The listed life isn’t when it craps out, it’s when it is no longer guaranteed to be within a certain stated efficiency. Much like how phone batteries slowly lose charge capacity as cells break, that’s how solar panels are. For a long time you won’t notice but eventually it’ll break down enough it’s noticeable, and eventually before it stops producing it’ll just not be worth the space that could be used for new panels.
Yep, the ‘payoff time’ on mine is long, but I am betting they last much longer than that, and that energy prices won’t scale normally. I really want sodium ion batteries to work out, but they are sounding less promising.
We have a big natural gas shortage looming here, and most homes are heated with it. Such an obvious thing to be trying to prepare for, sure heat pumps won’t heat all winter here, but… If I can generate heat using my free electricity 2 or 3 of the months needing heat a year, that is a permanent discount, that only gets better as costs go crazy. People around me don’t really seem to be thinking this way.
I live in Colorado and so probably different heating/cooling circumstances, but people also don’t seem to be thinking about future costs of energy either.
Now, it could be that things turn around, Donvict is out of the picture, and we have a huge boom in solar and wind and through legislation or just from the market being saturated, prices drop. But given the way that things are going right now thanks to the utterly insane Republicans, all I see is those guys fighting against the future in every way possible while they stand aside and let Donvict and his criminal family just grift their way to billions of dollars of ill-gotten gains.
Added solar to my house in 2018. Took out loan for over $20k, had it paid off in a year or two thanks to the SRECs generated by the wHs of the array. Doubt anyone in US could see that now under this clean coal regime, but it could be done well before the conveyed panel efficiency bullshit that likes to be thrown around. Technology Solutions on YT had a video recently that absolutely destroyed a bunch of the common detractors that like to be thrown around.
I can link the SolarEdge page for my array a little later today to show what a 7.2 wH (I think) system produces over 6-ish years, if it helps.
I’ll have to look for that video, sounds interesting.
It’s worth a watch: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KtQ9nt2ZeGM
I am looking into additions to solar
a lot of places have little windmills here, if that works for you. they’re relatively inexpensive and easy to maintain. the biggest concern is where the shadow goes (the pulsing shadow of the blades is not fun that hour it’s on you) but more modern blade designs have helped eliminate that
I am super interested in wind, but not sure if my house gets enough. My city is pretty windy in some areas, but I don’t often get a ton.
Do you have them yourself?
nah, we’re fortunate enough to get our needs met by solar. there are more than a few farms outside town that have windmills. I should have a working bicycle on monday, i can bike out and take some photos of the one i have in mind. it’s 20-30 feet tall, mostly aluminum. pretty sturdy. I think they have a sign out by it because they are tired of folk knocking their door and asking questions (we have a friendly enough community).
deleted by creator
Oh holey moley. That is a big windmill! I need like… a rooftop windmill, or… a couple rooftop windmills.
iirc that is the rooftop windmill. it’s pretty narrow. it’s not one of those giant 100 foot ones with 35 foot blades
I predict the administration will take this feedback and examine ways to… just kidding, there will be deranged posts, threats, and some kind of ham handed attempt to take over or disband the CBO.
I know people in the CBO. They are… bean counters. Very very good bean counters. But, maybe even easier to fascist away than the Fed.
Doesn’t the CBO sit in the legislative branch and not under the executive though?
So they’re under the strong protection of complicit GOP and spineless obedient Dems?
Don’t forget the 1000 mentions of passing the blame to Biden and how much they have to spend to revive the country or something like that.
https://mmt101.substack.com/p/mmt-basics-national-debt-defined
Can we all please learn how money works? The source of all USD can’t run out of USD.
Thank you. No fan of Donvict, but people tend to overlook MMT in all these discussions about debt.
I hate him, too, but I’m tired of seeing this same old bullshit misunderstanding. And you can see no one wants to take ten minutes to learn we’ve been lied to our entire lives about how the monetary system works. It’s so infuriating.
If you have a favorite book or documentary that you’d recommend, I’d love to know about it.
https://www.amazon.com/Macroeconomics-William-Mitchell/dp/1137610662
That is a full macroeconomics text book written from the MMT perspective.
If you want something a bit less dense, The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton goes over some decent basics.
They write most articles from the MMT perspective.
Thanks, I appreciate it.
You’re very welcome!
The worry is not that we run out - it’s what happens when we print too much
You make sure the lower classes are given a proportional amount to keep purchasing.
Can you link to a source for this?
I’m not aware of any historical examples or even theoretical models for this approach.
Can you link to a source for this?
I’m not aware of any historical examples or even theoretical models for this approach.
A federal job guarantee would be a start.
https://www.mmt.works/mmt-full-employment-and-the-job-guarantee-jg/
Indeed, the only concern is inflation, can never run out of US Dollars.
I’ve given up people not being able to see evidence right in front of their faces or ignoring it just because it doesn’t agree with their sense of reality it’s just so enraging exhausting I’m so tired I just can’t anymore if Republicans want to just burn everything to the ground fucking whatever. Even if dems gain control they’re not going to do anything to reverse any of the damage he’s done
That’s part of the plan: https://theweek.com/business/why-trump-wants-weak-dollar
Remember when conservatives at least pretended to be fiscally conservative?
Now it’s 100% a bigot platform. No room left for pretending about actually governing.
Of course the GOP will insist the solution is more cutbacks to benefits and mass deportations.
They’ve been doing the starve the beast scam since forever.
He’s balancing the budget. Fake news. And that ten million, he deserves it. And those children he had sex with, he only did it to get Epstein arrested. We know the snowflakes don’t like it when we get upset at them not speaking the way we want. They need a safe space from us trying turn America into a place that is secure for white christian people to never be disagreed with or competed with. The bluehairs can’t handle us wasting our gasoline we complained costs too much when we roll coal on them. Lol haha sorry libturds you can’t call us names anymore.
I sincerely hope this is satire because I’ve met people that think this way.
Who would have thought the king of bankruptcy would have done this!?
Running the US into the ground just like his businesses.
Didn’t putin do something similar while seizing power?
I mean let’s just put them together as what they truly are, since according to Bannon this all started from 4chan. Kekistocracy
Watch the FBI know Q was Epstein or Bannon or Moot all along
Already happening so they can muddy the waters and spin off more conspiracy theories to discredit the Epstein Files already obtained. Just like the Fortnite account that’s likely still being used by whoever took over Epstein’s sex trafficking ring to recruit more children.
https://reason.com/2026/02/11/epstein-files-fbi-tracked-down-anonymous-4chan-conspiracy-theorist/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/4chan-user-posted-about-jeffrey-epstein-s-death-it-was-n1041931
I’m not even convinced he’s dead anymore. We have a photo of him supposedly dead morticians are calling bullshit on and upon closer inspection of the notes photographed in his cell he seems to have been planning an escape. And more connections to the CIA and Israel as a cherry on top.
Would really love to know what is censored.
He’s dead. Otherwise Ghislaine wouldn’t have the leverage she does.
There’s specific note about a computer in palm beach with G next to it 😅
It’s exactly what Warren Buffett said about him; an interviewer in 2016 asked: “What do you think about Trump winning the presidency, he’s a businessman”
Buffett laughed and says: “Yeah, every business he has run, he run straight into the ground.” (Still thinking it was a theoretical question)
Reporter goes: “Yes, but he is President Elect”
Buffett’s smile just kinda melted as he realized the new “business” he would be running, was the U.S.
(The full interview is difficult to find, so I found a short one minute snippet remaining on YouTube)
They’re planning on snapping the neck of the global financial system and forcing the world to use crypto.
I actually get the feeling that the US stock market is being turned into a pump-and-dump scheme, not piecemeal but entire.
It’s weird, because I’m watching and reading about how many investors seem to be “quietly” shifting into more international funds.
If you even look at ETFs like VTI (closely matches S&P 500) vs. VXUS (International):
VTI went up 11.3% in the past year. Hey, that’s beating inflation and not terrible.
But: meanwhile, VXUS went up 30.8%.
In the past, it was usually the other way around. ETFs that track things like the S&P tend to outperform ones that track the rest of the rest of the market.
I wonder what is different about the past year?
Also, I keep seeing articles like this. https://harveylawcorporation.com/why-more-americans-are-leaving-the-us/
I mean, I’ve been doing that.
Youre right- the general logic was sp500 and if anything, a bit in international to diversify. With the way the us is being run it’s way more savvy to hedge your bets with vtiawx/vxus, especially when you know the ai bubble is propping up the American side.
Every once in a while, I dip into various Boglehead forums and see what kind of discussion is going on around their current thinking on the three fund portfolio and the way to divvy it up.
Of course, looking back only a year and trying to time/second-guess things generally goes against the principles of Boglehead investing, but you still see people wondering about it even among Bogleheads.
It is entirely possible that what the donnie crime family is doing to this country is very different than trends of the past.
Yep. John bogle famously never wanted international AFAIK.
And the favorite saying is past returns don’t guarantee future performance. This couple administrations have turned the world on its head so I’m not surprised to see people looking at things differently even if it goes against how things have trended for a half century plus.
No worries, the genius American people will blame this on Obama.
What will happen is that Americans will completely ignore this until a president of the opposite party gets elected and is left trying to fix this crap. Then suddenly it’s like “look how incompetent this party is! We’re so in debt right now!”.
That’s exactly right. Assuming we get another election a dem will be in power when this shit starts hitting the fan so that’s all maga will blame it on.
Trump: Wanna see some magic?
MAGA: Sure.
Trump: Look over there it’s an immigrant!
MAGA looks
Trump pickpockets
MAGA: Hey, where’s my wallet?
Trump: Oh look, it vanished and it’s now in my pocket! What a magic!
MAGA: You’re so great!
So fElon’s illegal and fake “doge” didn’t dismantle CBO? Seems like an oversight.
But I heard the SNP is $50,000! They just don’t wanna talk about that.
Blondi was talking about the Dow Jones when she was trying anything and everything to distract for her coverup on behalf of the Epstein Class.
</pedantic>
That rant was very powerful and scary. Fortunately, she was playing to Trump and not giving us her best impression of Lawyer. Unfortunately, the fact this is what the President of the USA wants to see terrifies me.
It’s not any more…
