This goes beyond “show you sources” to “you need classes in genetics, microbiology, organic evolution, and maybe statistics”. For what it’s worth, I’m an educated and experienced microbiologist with experience in public health. I’m not sure how to cite what’s effectively a semester of college education and four textbooks into one comment. I can explain the basics and you can verify details if you’d like. I am more than happy to answer questions and point you towards where you might find more information on specific topics but citations for all of this would be a huge endeavor.
There are two main reasons H5N1 isn’t human-to-human: specificity and, by its effect, low transmission. I’ll try to keep this super high level.
Regarding specificity, viruses don’t infect cells at random. Instead, there’s basically a “lock and key” effect where the virus attaches to an external component (receptor) of the soon-to-be infected cell, then it releases its genetic payload. Much like how it’s pretty easy to pick most locks, it doesn’t need to be a perfect match, just close enough to get the job done.
This is how you get some splash over between species, as there’s variation in both the virus and potential receptors due to mutation, and through random chance you might get a good enough match. The more exposure a virus has to potential receptors, the more likely it is that this will happen. If it happens, the particular mutation making this possible will be selected for in that individual or population, creating many more copies of a mutation that otherwise may have just died out. This is exactly what happens when a human gets infected with a zoonotic virus.
Next we have transmission. Not all cells in the human body have the same receptors, so viruses can infect different parts of the body. This is partly why people get “head colds” and “stomach bugs” - that’s the region with the most cells with the target receptor. H5N1 isn’t particularly good at infecting human airway cells, so infected humans are fairly well dead ends as this blocks airborne transmission, its primary mode of spread.
Currently, H5N1 is one point mutation, vastly the most common type of mutation, away from switching specificity to humans and infecting our airways. This is incredibly small and viruses churn out point mutations like crazy. Every time some dingus swills down raw milk, we’re rolling evolution’s random chance mutation dice. If just one virion has that single mutation and successfully infects that moron’s airway, it’s game on for a potential new pandemic. Evolution is just a numbers game and the more chances you give it, the more likely it is to happen.
It’s really hard to say - estimating with any certainly would be like estimating the likelihood of the lottery being won without knowing how many people are playing.
What makes it tricky is the mutation that changes to human specificity may change specificity away from cows/birds. In that case, if there’s no opportunity for it to infect any humans, it just stops there. This may have happened multiple times already.
I’d say it’s possible, incoming political idiots will make it more likely, and given how poorly they handled the last pandemic, it wouldn’t be unwise to make reasonable preparations in advance: respiratory protection, soap/sanitizer (it needn’t be antibiotic), maybe a bit of backup food and other daily supplies in case the shit hits the fan and supply chains get squirrely.
I used to make fun of preppers before COVID (and still think many of them are a bit too paranoid, you don’t need a buried shipping container full of weapons), but we now have full-face respirators and a few months of dried food supplies.
Sounds like your risk assessment is similar to ours on bird flu.
As for prepping, I think it comes down to being realistic about actual threats. I’m a lot more worried about Lyme disease and other tick carried disease than I am being bit by a water moccasin so I treat my clothing with permethrin. I’m a lot more worried about a house fire than a home invasion so I have CO and smoke detectors. Just added an emergency fire ladder to our second floor. Real life isn’t a Mad Max movie.
My girl keeps a well stocked pantry and deep freezers. She’s experienced food insecurity before, and she manages our food. We stock up on things we already eat when they go on sale. She’s read some alarming things about the coffee harvest this year so we now have a year supply of coffee. It will all get used and we are insulated from a big price hike.
Longer term, we hope to raise or hunt all our own meat. Our “prepping” isn’t really anything we wouldn’t do anyhow. We love venison, rabbit, and now have land to raise a couple of steers.
We have soaps and sanitizers. Keep a good supply on hand, super long shelf life.
With COVID, I got us all half face respirators. I spoke with my girl, I think I’m going to look at getting a couple of full face. Our house is old and has a lot of asbestos in the walls and shingles, so I use the respirator when cutting into a wall along with a HEPA shop vac. Also use my respirator when dealing with moldy hay or bad allergans. So, it’s not like I’m wasting money. Thanks for getting me thinking about it. P100 is great for peace of mind.
As far as guns and such, you can’t eat ammo or rifles. We have farm and hunting firearms. Thinking a bunch of weapons will be what makes a difference if things got really bad is foolish.
Mostly, we just try and pay attention and anticipate big price changes. We are slowly working towards having less dependance on supply chain disruption. True supply chain independence is a pipe dream and would be a brutal existence.
We also have a bit of land and a full-face respirator is the best for working with anything dusty, spraying weeds, or even just burn piles. Smoke in my face? Zero fucks given now.
If I may, I recommend the Scott AV-3000. They’re a bit pricey but you can beat the hell out of them for years, can replace individual components, and they work with canisters, cartridges, SCBA, and supplied air, all of which use a bog-standard connector. If there’s any question on sizing, you’re probably a medium. 80+% of the adult population is medium, around 15% large, and less than 5% small. Large is barely larger, small is way smaller.
I may or may not have had a job related to respiratory protection for awhile. Science is fun!
If you ever have any questions, feel free to hit me up! Us friendly “reasonably prepared” types gotta stick together.
I went with 3M 6900 (Large) as it is what I have experience with and before I saw your message Amazon was low stock and MSC was really high. Most of my mask use has been in industrial process and only for short periods.
I will absolutely look into the Scott AV-3000. I only got a couple pair of the full face.
Will do. You have machinery and tooling questions lemme know.
This goes beyond “show you sources” to “you need classes in genetics, microbiology, organic evolution, and maybe statistics”. For what it’s worth, I’m an educated and experienced microbiologist with experience in public health. I’m not sure how to cite what’s effectively a semester of college education and four textbooks into one comment. I can explain the basics and you can verify details if you’d like. I am more than happy to answer questions and point you towards where you might find more information on specific topics but citations for all of this would be a huge endeavor.
There are two main reasons H5N1 isn’t human-to-human: specificity and, by its effect, low transmission. I’ll try to keep this super high level.
Regarding specificity, viruses don’t infect cells at random. Instead, there’s basically a “lock and key” effect where the virus attaches to an external component (receptor) of the soon-to-be infected cell, then it releases its genetic payload. Much like how it’s pretty easy to pick most locks, it doesn’t need to be a perfect match, just close enough to get the job done.
This is how you get some splash over between species, as there’s variation in both the virus and potential receptors due to mutation, and through random chance you might get a good enough match. The more exposure a virus has to potential receptors, the more likely it is that this will happen. If it happens, the particular mutation making this possible will be selected for in that individual or population, creating many more copies of a mutation that otherwise may have just died out. This is exactly what happens when a human gets infected with a zoonotic virus.
Next we have transmission. Not all cells in the human body have the same receptors, so viruses can infect different parts of the body. This is partly why people get “head colds” and “stomach bugs” - that’s the region with the most cells with the target receptor. H5N1 isn’t particularly good at infecting human airway cells, so infected humans are fairly well dead ends as this blocks airborne transmission, its primary mode of spread.
Currently, H5N1 is one point mutation, vastly the most common type of mutation, away from switching specificity to humans and infecting our airways. This is incredibly small and viruses churn out point mutations like crazy. Every time some dingus swills down raw milk, we’re rolling evolution’s random chance mutation dice. If just one virion has that single mutation and successfully infects that moron’s airway, it’s game on for a potential new pandemic. Evolution is just a numbers game and the more chances you give it, the more likely it is to happen.
What does your gut say on the likelihood of it jumping and, if so, when? What would the timeline look like for spread after the jump? Likely CFR?
Sorry to blast you with questions. My level of concern is rising.
It’s really hard to say - estimating with any certainly would be like estimating the likelihood of the lottery being won without knowing how many people are playing.
What makes it tricky is the mutation that changes to human specificity may change specificity away from cows/birds. In that case, if there’s no opportunity for it to infect any humans, it just stops there. This may have happened multiple times already.
I’d say it’s possible, incoming political idiots will make it more likely, and given how poorly they handled the last pandemic, it wouldn’t be unwise to make reasonable preparations in advance: respiratory protection, soap/sanitizer (it needn’t be antibiotic), maybe a bit of backup food and other daily supplies in case the shit hits the fan and supply chains get squirrely.
I used to make fun of preppers before COVID (and still think many of them are a bit too paranoid, you don’t need a buried shipping container full of weapons), but we now have full-face respirators and a few months of dried food supplies.
Sounds like your risk assessment is similar to ours on bird flu.
As for prepping, I think it comes down to being realistic about actual threats. I’m a lot more worried about Lyme disease and other tick carried disease than I am being bit by a water moccasin so I treat my clothing with permethrin. I’m a lot more worried about a house fire than a home invasion so I have CO and smoke detectors. Just added an emergency fire ladder to our second floor. Real life isn’t a Mad Max movie.
My girl keeps a well stocked pantry and deep freezers. She’s experienced food insecurity before, and she manages our food. We stock up on things we already eat when they go on sale. She’s read some alarming things about the coffee harvest this year so we now have a year supply of coffee. It will all get used and we are insulated from a big price hike.
Longer term, we hope to raise or hunt all our own meat. Our “prepping” isn’t really anything we wouldn’t do anyhow. We love venison, rabbit, and now have land to raise a couple of steers.
We have soaps and sanitizers. Keep a good supply on hand, super long shelf life.
With COVID, I got us all half face respirators. I spoke with my girl, I think I’m going to look at getting a couple of full face. Our house is old and has a lot of asbestos in the walls and shingles, so I use the respirator when cutting into a wall along with a HEPA shop vac. Also use my respirator when dealing with moldy hay or bad allergans. So, it’s not like I’m wasting money. Thanks for getting me thinking about it. P100 is great for peace of mind.
As far as guns and such, you can’t eat ammo or rifles. We have farm and hunting firearms. Thinking a bunch of weapons will be what makes a difference if things got really bad is foolish.
Mostly, we just try and pay attention and anticipate big price changes. We are slowly working towards having less dependance on supply chain disruption. True supply chain independence is a pipe dream and would be a brutal existence.
Yep, you and I are 100% on the same page.
We also have a bit of land and a full-face respirator is the best for working with anything dusty, spraying weeds, or even just burn piles. Smoke in my face? Zero fucks given now.
If I may, I recommend the Scott AV-3000. They’re a bit pricey but you can beat the hell out of them for years, can replace individual components, and they work with canisters, cartridges, SCBA, and supplied air, all of which use a bog-standard connector. If there’s any question on sizing, you’re probably a medium. 80+% of the adult population is medium, around 15% large, and less than 5% small. Large is barely larger, small is way smaller.
I may or may not have had a job related to respiratory protection for awhile. Science is fun!
If you ever have any questions, feel free to hit me up! Us friendly “reasonably prepared” types gotta stick together.
I went with 3M 6900 (Large) as it is what I have experience with and before I saw your message Amazon was low stock and MSC was really high. Most of my mask use has been in industrial process and only for short periods.
I will absolutely look into the Scott AV-3000. I only got a couple pair of the full face.
Will do. You have machinery and tooling questions lemme know.