I found this thought funny. A few years ago everyone was all learn to code so you don’t lose your job! Now there wont be any programming jobs in 10 years. But we will need a lot of manual labor still.
The Learn To Code hype was being driven by employers to create a work surplus to drive wages down. Now those same employers think they can use AI instead.
then it’s going to inadvertently happen to the trades too 😬
Any new construction job is going to crash because no one will have any money to build new anymore. I’m already seeing stalled projects near me. Not that I have a big problem with that. They like to cut down and cleared trees to build a warehouse instead of tearing down old buildings.
Large corporations will always have the money. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of them get so large they start forming in-house construction companies, initially offering above market pay and benefits, to attract large teams of workers and undercut existing independent (often unionized) construction services. The competition forces the indie union shops to shutter or sell, and now, in control of the entire workforce, the corporations slash the wages and benefits as the workers no longer have other places to apply to.
Race to the bottom, baybeeee
They’re not going to be building malls and warehouses if no one is buying shit anymore.
can’t wait for all of us to become so poor that they re-legalize company stores and scrip
I think that’s their plan. The billionaires seem inconvenienced by the rest of us living where-ever we want, and buying we want from who we want to buy from. Company towns would solve that, for them.
Yes. The billionaire goal is to get back to building company towns.
I’ve been hearing that line for more than 20 years. Anytime there is a tech downturn you hear it loudly - this has happened several times since 2000. However the fact remains that most coders make far more money than most people in construction. The exceptions tend to be people who own their construction business - though if you do the paperwork construction is one of the easiest businesses to work for yourself in once you have skills.
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As soon as I graduated, ‘too many people are fighting for IT jobs, depressing salaries, meanwhile we’re paying plumbers $100/hour.’
That was 2001. Almost 25 years later, I recently paid a plumber $300/hour.
You paid the plumbing company $300/hour. The plumber would be lucky to make $30 of that.
I think a lot of colleges clowns are learning that too much supply means.
Everyone was mocking trades 20 years ago. It was hard to get in to with boomers being boomers.
But people my age who got into trades are doing quite well, ie they got their own businesses now.
I am still sucking corporate dick for no raises 🤡
Man people have been telling everyone about the shortage of people in trades since at least 25 years ago. Every year there is a news outlet saying 150k plumbers are needed, electricians and what not.
No one had mocked trades. People just follow what they think it’s best for them
The plumber wasn’t making that much though. That $300/hr includes a lot of buisness costs - someone needs to pay for the fancy van they drive in, the office workers (which is often private equity backed and has a lot of office staff and CEO that you don’t care about), advertising, and whatever other costs. Plus the plumber often only has 20 minutes of work in your house, but between jobs taking an unknown amount of time, and drive time to the next job they need to charge for a lot of time that they are not working.
Just in time to finish your uni degree which you started 3 years ago then…
No wonder business is complaining that uni grads are so unprepared and lost.
In fairness, we’ve been complaining about university graduate computer programmers being nearly useless since as far back as when I was an almost useless university graduate computer programmer. Ha ha.
See, if you were really smart, you’d learn how to engineer software to construct things. 😌
That’s a pretty interesting field!
Surprisingly (considering everyone’s fears of being replaced) - software engineering for construction is rarely profitable.
The demand is surprisingly low for computers and robots that can replace low paid humans.
It turns out there’s a metric ton of us humans around, so any replacement for us usually needs to be economical in ways that won’t pay for the necessary metal and plastic and circuits and engineering skill.
The use of AI by non-developers to produce code will greatly increase the hourly rate I can charge.
The number of security holes produced is absolutely fabolous.
Back when I practiced law, I thought the same thing about services like LegalZoom. Thing is, laypeople are terrible at evaluating risk in a professional way. All they see are prices and marketing. Nobody cares about cybersecurity until they get ransomwared AND have a financial motive for preventing it. And most attacked companies now just shrug and hand out a year of credit monitoring from a company no one’s heard of.
Yeah that doesn’t fly in the EU.
https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/cyber-resilience-act
That act doesn’t seem to do anything to avoid the shrugging and free year of credit monitoring we get in the US. Until companies are liable for lost data, I don’t see that changing. I bet it’d change in a heartbeat if monetary loss from identity theft could claimed against any company that lost your data in the last year. Individuals wouldn’t even have to do it, banks would automate that and HOUND those companies for payouts since they’re the ones that take the biggest hits.
I think you misunderstand how the EU enforces law compared to the US.
The companies care when it is company money being stolen.
As an aside, the overlaps between lawyers and tech is huge.
I was wondering if the AI would expand the role of humans in the security sector of tech.
I’m fairly sure the “learn to code” thing was just a media campaign by corporations to assure an abundance of programmers, leading to decreased labor rates. Years earlier it was a push for electronic engineers and technicians.
The reactionary “learn to code” nonsense started a lot further back than a few years! Also, who told you there won’t be any software development positions in 10 years?
Anthropic for starters. What they don’t realize is everyone will be switching to cyber security jobs in 10 years when every vibe coded piece of software is riddle with security vulnerabilities.
Anthropic and others are over hyping their product so they can sell it. They are likely wrong.
And yeah your point stands.
Wait AI is overhyped? /s
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
¯\ /¯ \_(ツ)_/
If quantum computers become a standard thing in 10 years it could be even worse.
God, imagine some two-year-old iPad kid with a quantum tablet accidentally trashing a vibe coded DOGE system by happenstance.
If machine intelligence is indeed a different form of intelligence, then it can be observed and judged on the basis of its own merits, as opposed to a messianic waiting for a moment where it might equal or eclipse (weakly defined) human intelligence. This would even render obsolete the question as to whether or not machines can think—which in itself willfully glosses over the corresponding opposite question, “Can humans think?” posed by the former Fluxus artist (and Emmett Williams collaborator) Tomas Schmit in the year 2000 (Schmit et al. 2007, 18–19). — Crapularity Hermeneutics: Interpretation as the Blind Spot of Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, and Other Algorithmic Producers of the Postapocalyptic Present. Florian Cramer.
Nah, it’s just changed from
Learn to code
to
Learn to AI prompt engineer, bro!
From Learn to Code to Build to Code.
The code will break and they will be back. People are buying into the bullshit until they realize its just marketing and has no practical application
Interestingly, that’s how it works for construction jobs too!
Things will break and they will be back.
Doubtful. The oligarch class only needs a handful of good developers to make working code for rich people use. The rest of us are being stuck with half-assed AI slop. They’re trying to carve 99% of us out of the economy (the parts that pertain to them) and relegate us to backbreaking wage slavery. Killing middle class jobs is the point, they think.
Not saying it’s a good plan, but it sure looks like what they’re trying to do.
They’re not going to make any money selling to other rich people. They didn’t get rich buying someone else’s trash.
They are literally building doomsday bunkers while knowing we’re pretty much heading unavoidably towards cooking the earth alive. The 1% has concentrated more wealth than ever in modern history. They dont care about squeezing a little more money out of us at this point, they’re in their endgame. All that’s left to do is to finish training the AI that’ll be their staff once they seal themselves off and that’s it.
Cory Doctorow’s “The Masque of the Red Death” is my current favorite endgame for those doomsday shelter billionaires… Here’s a free audio of it: https://ia902908.us.archive.org/1/items/Cory_Doctorow_Podcast_332/Cory_Doctorow_Podcast_332_-_The_Masque_of_the_Red_Death.mp3
That’s not happening in their lifetime. Unless all they want is something to talk to as they go senile and starve themselves.
That is the plan. But eventually they will start dying to the same buggy hospital code that the rest of us use, or whatever other issue.
There’s a billionaire fantasy that they can afford to buy artisinal everything, and not get poisoned by the results of their own stupid callousness.
I don’t believe it. I do believe they will try, for awhile.
This is 100% what i see the plan to be as well.
Construction jobs? Buddy. We can 3D print houses now.
Someone still have to assemble it.
That’s what the 3D printer is doing.
Yet it’s not a popular way to do it, and multiple company closed after a few years of operating.
That’s right. I’ve seen 3d printed houses that were every bit as complete and ready to use as any vibe code program!
(This is an attempt to humorously point out that both are cool and useful for an actual professional, while useless to anyone not willing or able to actually finish the job.)
More like there’ll be more coding jobs because of how fucked up LLM-coding can be
I work in software development but I also have a second job as an arborists offsider because I’m pretty sure trees will never stop fucking growing.
Get a construction job so you can continue to enjoy coding
