European leaders are considering dumping $2.34 trillion in US debt if Trump abandons Ukraine, potentially triggering an economic crisis worse than 2008

  • supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz
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    4 days ago

    As someone from the US, do it, rip the bandaid off, this is going to get much much worse before things have the chance to get better and good people here have all been rejected from having meaningful power.

    edit this news source is questionable

  • Ghostalmedia@lemmy.world
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    4 days ago

    Using the phrase “nuclear option” metaphorically is pretty dumb when we’re talking about a war where parties have threatened to use actual nuclear weapons.

    • Gust@piefed.social
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      3 days ago

      Id argue its still valid. Given that the people in charge (US perspective) dont give a shit about us beyond our productivity, $2tril of economic damage is probably exactly the same to them as being hit by a nuke. Honestly it might even hurt the parasite class more than a nuke because at least with a nuke they’d have pretense to go to war over it

    • foodandart@lemmy.zip
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      4 days ago

      Yaah, I hit some of the other stories on that site. It’s a low-grade copy of some NewsCorp rag, that’s got a right wing bent. Not impressed.

    • InFerNo@lemmy.ml
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      3 days ago

      The problem with Trump is that these kinds of threats make him fly into a rage and escalate further. It could widen the relationship between EU and US because of that.

      I’m happy EU is biting back for once, but I hate to think how Trump will respond.

        • capital_sniff@lemmy.world
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          3 days ago

          You could look at it that way. Broad strokes yes. The thing is it is probably a bluff.

          The problem is the US dollar is the world reserve currency and the Euro Dollar market is massive. So even if a country doesn’t transact directly with the US it still is using dollars for transactions. The US is also the only world super power with a military to back that up.

          When Russia started up in Ukraine again the Biden administration booted them from the settlement system and froze their funds in western institutions. Seeing that happen China and Russia are heading up a new BRICS settlement system. That is a direct threat to US interests in remaining the reserve currency.

          The US response to this is to go after some of those countries joining BRICS with revolutions and stuff. And at home to pass the Genius Act. An attempt to keep US Treasuries relevant by requiring crypto stable coins to hold them as collateral.

          What I think is happening is the US is going after all the other transactions for the people in countries with less stable currencies. Brent Johnson the Dollar Milkshake theory guy has his Orlando Investor conference talk on this theory up for free on youtube if you are interested.

          TLDR: Some nations aren’t happy with the US and how it is acting and are threatening to de-dollarize. Except the US Navy is why much of the trade happens.

          • RaskolnikovsAxe@lemmy.ca
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            3 days ago

            I say they dump it and we’ll find out who the US really is.

            You’re answering as if this current tension was not caused entirely by the US deciding to upend the global order and morph into a bully pirate nation that threatens allies chasing the new Monroe Doctrine.

            If they choose the military option, rather than return to a sane global political and economic order - the insanity of which is entirely their fault - then we will have the measure of the nation, and they will surely usher in a rapid descent.

    • partofthevoice@lemmy.zip
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      4 days ago

      I’m no economist and will probably get this wrong, but since there is nobody else here… least I can do is give you enough an answer that someone more knowledgeable will come and correct me.

      Basically, governments can print magic slips of paper called “bonds” that people will want to buy for two primary reasons: (1) they get interest when they hold the bonds (interest paid by taxes), and (2) the bond is considered a safe way to store value (like how a house is considered a safe way to store value). The government, in return for selling those magic pieces of paper, gets the money used to buy the bonds. It’s the Treasury Bond market.

      Now here’s two important details about the bond market: (1) Bonds have an inverse relationship with cost and interest rates. If stockpiles of bonds get sold, that increases the supply of bonds which causes price to fall — adversely causing interest rates to hike up. (2) Because U.S. Treasury bonds are considered risk-free, all other interest rates in the economy (mortgages, car loans, corporate debt) are built on top of the Treasury yield (Example: If a 10-year Treasury yields 5%, a bank might offer a 10-year mortgage at 5-6%). Basically, Treasury rates set the floor for almost all borrowing costs.

      So if a foreign state sells massive quantities of bonds, interest rates everywhere can shoot up. That can make all of our existing debt too difficult to pay back. We’d be stuck with three options if it gets bad enough: (1) default on the debt, (2) debase our currency by printing enough money to push the problem down the road, or (3) balance the governments budget.

      From what I understand, we’ve already pushed the limits of option 2 during the Housing Crisis and COVID. Printing more money is talked about as though it’s impossible without causing more harm than good. Honestly, I don’t know what happens if the bond market cracks at this point… a depression comparable to TGD?

      • captainlezbian@lemmy.world
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        3 days ago

        Also 3 is infeasible because the rich own congress and the poor are struggling really bad right now. You can’t cut the fat off someone skinny and we’ve spent the majority of 2025 cutting large chunks of muscle off to get a bit of fat. The only realistoc options to balance the budget are to cut military spending (including ice and police), or to start levyying massive taxes that will either impoverish the middle class or actually do a dent in the rich.

        1 is somehow actually the worst option of the three though. The united states’ wealth comes in part because we always pay our debts. This is how we got here. Borrowing money is extremely low cost for us so we just do it constantly. It became politicized with the two santas strategy, but we rely on cheap debt to have the power to do things. If we default shit like high speed rail, a border wall, single payer health care, war with Venezuela, and even mythical non partisan expensive projects become financially impossible without taking on self destructive amounts of debt.

        Unfortunately, I don’t think the administration understands any of that. Trump will print money, cut medicaid entirely, and demand we all go hungry for his vanity while he eats his newly hundred dollar big mac

  • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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    4 days ago

    Potential for a nightmare scenario:

    1. Trump dumps Ukraine for Russia.

    2. EU dumps $2.34 trillion in US debt

    3. Trump pulls out of NATO.

    4. Russia invades Poland or some other NATO country.

    5. US Dollar is worthless so we couldn’t do anything if we wanted to, and Trump is on Russia’s side anyway.

    • discocactus@lemmy.world
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      4 days ago

      US and Russia and OPEC (whoever refuses gets liberated) create a true oil and gas cartel, EU capitulates. China can’t compete with US+USSR. This is 100% the strategy in play right now.

      • VoodooAardvark@lemmy.zip
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        3 days ago

        Script is too old to be effective anymore. China is balls deep in renewables and by the time the final act plays out they’ll be even less dependent on those resources. They also play the generational long game and not a 4-year election cycle. US is in fuck around and find out territory.

  • ProfThadBach@lemmy.world
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    4 days ago

    Haven’t they threatened this already? I say do it. Dump the debt and watch Trump go mad. The real fuck stick though is Miller. Trump is just lettings him fucking Nazi all over the place.

    • ExtremeDullard@piefed.socialOP
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      4 days ago

      Miller is less dangerous than Vance: the former is an obvious nutjob while the latter, as much the Nazi as Miller, masquerades as a somewhat reasonable - if slightly creepy - human being

      • SupraMario@lemmy.world
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        Miller is one of the writers of project 2025. Vance is a dumbass mouth piece that follows directions. He’s like the little kid behind the large bully.

  • Chippys_mittens@lemmy.world
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    4 days ago

    Right wing media company saying false (based on what I’ve read) information. Typical, references that the wall street journal got information from European intelligence agencies. Yet, I haven’t seen anything to corroborate that from the WSJ itself. Intelligence agencies aren’t typically known for posting and explaining their plans. If the US economy crashes, the world’s economy crashes. It would be economic mutually assured destruction.

  • Babalugats@feddit.uk
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    4 days ago

    If it was any other paper, including weekly world news and the national enquirer, I might take notice. It’s the express. I personally have never read anything accurate or correct in that paper.

  • Not_mikey@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    4 days ago

    Wouldn’t they just be shooting themselves in the foot here? Even with all the talk about decoupling and tariffs, the European and American economy are still heavily intertwined and a recession in the US will almost certainly spread to the EU.

    Look at what happened in 2008, some wall street crooks made some stupid bets on mortgages and then the euro-zone got sent into a debt crisis.

      • frustrated_phagocytosis@fedia.io
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        4 days ago

        We aren’t keeping our promises made when they gave up nukes. They’re even trying to take control of their civilian nuclear plant! They deserve to have all the nukes, and we deserve zero. And UN peacekeepers too keep the feds from harassing civilians at this point.

        • matlag@sh.itjust.works
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          3 days ago

          That nuke ship has sailed. Lesson to learn is never rely on other’s promises for your own security.

          The “peace plan” requires Ukraine to give up half of its army, in exchange they would be “protected”. Giving in would be a 100% guarantee that Russia will try again and the US will mostly watch and drag on support.

          NATO countries in Europe still assuming US will intervene if they are attacked are completely delusional. You can’t even be sure they would send equipment.

        • Randomgal@lemmy.ca
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          4 days ago

          Yes fuck humanity. Fuck the planet. Bring nukes baby. Who needs peace for there is only a nuclear wasteland to fight over.