Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.
Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.
If Iran’s new leadership keeps its grip on power, the long-term measure of the success of the conflict may hang on the fate of 440kg of enriched uranium which was buried under a mountain by US strikes last June, former and serving Israeli defence and intelligence sources said. Enough for more than 10 nuclear warheads, Iran could use it to hasten the construction of a weapon if the material remains in the country.
No shit homie?
Because they don’t want to “win”…
Bibi and trump both, they don’t want a victory, they want a forever war they can use as justification to cancel elections.
Look at the people responsible for stopping terror attacks, they’re trying to make one happen thru sheer incompetence if nothing else. trump is desperate for some type of “attack on America” because he expects a 9/11 style bump in approval, when it’s likely to be the opposite reaction if it happens.
They want the prophecies
American Christian extremists do…
But their prophecy is for a Jewish ethnostate to start a war that becomes Armageddon…
And to lose that war at which point the rapture happens and everyone globally gets raptured before Armageddon spreads world wide and into “Christian nations”.
Bibi and Jewish extremists want to conquer the world.
The alliance won’t hold together. At some point the Christian extremists will abandon Israel to bring about the next step; the destruction of Israel. Because their prophecy requires the destruction of Israel.
None of them are working towards the same goal, they’re just temporarily working towards the same step, and when they reach it their plans diverege.
With the current war in Iran, the Christian extremists might move to the next step any day. We could see a sudden and drastic reversal in how Republicans treat Israel any day now.
While I understand the hypothesis, I am not sure it is working out that way.
Although Trump is trying desperately to find a way to subvert the elections, given the decentralized State based nature of it, it’s going to take more than an external war with Iran to justify an internal canceling of the elections. The SAVE Act is an attempt at nationalizing the Elections, but while it’s moving it lacks the capacity to jump the biggest hurdle in the Senate. Any Executive attempt at nationalizing the elections has very little judicial basis, which would make it hard to hold up in court. It’s dynamic and complex, but it’s not as simple as his declaration of marshal law.
That is not to say your sentiment isn’t correct. If he can find a way, or his backers can find a way, they will try and do it.
On the second point, Trump didn’t get a 9/11 style bump. Indeed it seems to have gone almost the opposite way based on polling. Given inflation and other economic impacts, it might cause more defections before it helps him.
What it has done is push Epstein out of the US new. This too might have been part of the calculus. It is still rippling through the UK and other political systems, but the US has put it aside for now.
given the decentralized State based nature of it, it’s going to take more than an external war with Iran to justify an internal canceling of the elections.
If trump was constrained by a system of checks and balances, sure.
But I think there’s a strong chance he “declares” them cancelled, Dem states hold them and Red states don’t…
And then we see what happens on 1/6.
Like, we can’t just expect them to play by the rules when there entire ethos is “fuck you, make me”.
Someone’s gonna have to make them… Whether thats words or actions is what we need to find out.
Bibi just wants Iran broken and bleeding. That means nobody else can stop his settling program, aka conquer and colonize the Middle East.
Trump is just there because he thought it would be easy.
Trump is just there because he thought it would be easy.
He doesn’t do anything without there being something in it for him personally. We don’t know what he’s getting out of it yet, it could be blackmail threats, Saudi money, or something else.
They also want the US nose bloodied as much as possible so they throw up our hands, tell them the middle east is their problem now and give them boat loads of cash to “fix the problem”.
No need for regime change if you just kill all the public there. Seems to be Israrl’s plan for Gaza.
The Israel/US plan was to kill the Ayatollah and Iran state would collapse without a supreme leader.
Iran’s plan to martyr the Ayatollah and fight asymmetrically with decentralized leadership.
Iran’s plan is better than the Israel/US plan.
Maybe they should have learned from Lt Gen Van Riper instead of giving each other celebratory blowjobs of winning a rigged war game.
Israel started this war purely to derail peace/nuclear negotiations between US and Iran (twice in 9 months). Killing Ayatolah, and school girls ffs, was a purposeful act to unite Iran to commit to fight. Bombing Tehran oil depots was purposeful act to have Iran retaliate against GCC oil assets. Some Iranian reported attacks on GCC are accused as coming from Israel.
Israel only wants a destroyed chaotic Iran that is incapable of opposing its genocide and greater expansion. GCC turning against the US is perfect if the US helps fight its GCC allies for greater Israel. Never assume that Israel doesn’t want the biggest bugaboo monster leading its enemy regimes, or take seriously any “Israel distraction debate/opposition” that peace was ever its goal.
Some things that have slipped out this week is that “US was planning this for months”. Rubio and Hegseth are demonically possessed to serve Israel, and it is Trump’s entire political capital, despite the massive direct bribes from GCC. They were planning only amongst those 3, but planning on how to best serve Netanyahu. It wasn’t a pentagon/security council expert plan.
War can be going to Israel’s plan, without pretending that there was something other than a maximally evil plan.
Israel is having us fight Iran for them while they invade Lebanon. Seems to be working out well for the Israelis from their end.
Meanwhile our soldiers are dying for them, again. I’m so over this ‘relationship’ we have with this fucking country.
And throwing phosphorus is changing the regime?
Yeah.
We noticed.
They’re literally just improvising this war, because the point is to create chaos in Iran and they don’t care how bad it gets. These bastards want another Sudan.
Correct me if I am wrong, however isn’t destabilizing the neighborhood that you live in is generally a bad idea?
Maybe it seems less so when you have a country sending you free WMD’s every week.
If the choice is between a central organized state that can make missiles to launch at you, or a basket case country with no ability to make missiles because the industry is destroyed and the ones that are left are being fired within the country, you pick the basket case state.
Israel knows at this point they aren’t going to get a stable friendly regime in Iran like they have in the Gulf states since popular sentiment is so against them the people would overthrow that government. So if they can’t get a friendly state it’s better there’s no state at all to channel the broad hatred for Israel.
Trick question, the answer is c) you establish mutually beneficial ties with your neighbors and stop being jingoist fuckstains so neither of you have to launch missiles at each other.
Iran has been destabilizing the region for decades.
Lord almighty! It must be a democrat hoax. There is NO WAY donald. Jay trump would do anything without a food proof plan. Mark my words, it was crooked-dick joe
They attacked Iran with a clear view to raise oil revenues
I’m sorry…“we”!?
Are you saying the Iranian people are stupid and cannot think for themselves ? Israel and others do not want a regime to build nukes and then blast Israel. Sees pretty clear.
An air campaign alone, removing the current leadership with airstrikes and blocking Iranian sea-trade will not win the war. The Russians and Chinese are fucking delighted, because they can evaluate and examine the US weapon systems capabilities. Regime change, it ain’t gonna happen until Israel and US military forces can physically occupy Iran.
Oh yes, the highly enriched uranium that they only started stockpiling after Trump threw away the deal Obama made with them. The same uranium they offered to give back during the talks, Kushner and Wickoff didn’t bring a nuclear specialist in for . And now because of these rich assholes thinking they can do whatever they hell they want a ton of innocent people are gonna die.
a ton of innocent people
are gonna diehave already died and thousands more will followUntil the poorly behaving wealthy see real consequences in real life for their actions, they will never stop.
Shame and ridicule is useless. They are immune.
True. But the IRGc slaughtered 40,000+ innocent civilians from their own Country.
Justifiable interventional response
EDIT: Yes, there are humanitarian and international law violations occurring in many countries. I oppose those as well. However, I’m not the one making decisions about when or where interventions occur, nor am I a commander-in-chief directing military action.
The bottom line is that many people agree the IRGC are a leading global sponsor of terrorism and have committed serious humanitarian crimes against their own people and others. Allowing such a regime to acquire nuclear weapons is something the international community should take seriously. This isn’t Iraq.
If nothing is done and, in ten years, they possess large numbers of nuclear-capable warheads with global reach, people will inevitably ask why the world stood by and allowed it to happen. By that point, the options available to stop them would be far more dangerous and destabilizing than addressing the threat now. Diplomacy has been attempted for decades, IRGC have demonstrated it won’t agree to anything preventing acquisition of Nuclear capable weapons.
So when are you shipping off to Sudan? If you’re so keen on international intervention of domestic killing, Sudan is in much worse shape than Iran.
I didn’t choose the military as my line of work. If I had and was sent somewhere to intervene, I would accept that responsibility.
I support intervention when humanitarian law is being severely violated, but I don’t make the decisions on where those interventions happen.
I chose healthcare instead, and I help Canadians every day.
Can we even trust those numbers at this point?
Very believable and not fake at all.
Oof that is some pretty shitty reasoning. The US, just with the war on drugs for instance. The peak was over one hundred thousand people dead in 2023 alone. Every single death is preventable, but the US continues to choose to attack the poor and minorities instead of engaging in harm reduction.
Then consider deaths to gun violence. We have lost 1.5 million citizens in the last 30 years. More than every single US soldier lost in every single war we have fought.
Should other nations use this as a pretext to invade the U$ to free its oppressed population?
You’re comparing social crises to state-directed mass killing. Those aren’t equivalent under international law or humanitarian doctrine. The threshold people talk about for intervention is typically genocide, ethnic cleansing, or large-scale state violence against civilians.
Social problems like drug overdoses and gun violence are not the same as a government slaughtering civilians. Conflating the two is a false equivalence.
The war on drugs is the very definition of large scale state directed killing. Need I remind you that the real reason the War on Drugs started was to go after minorities. Over a million families destroyed by the war on drugs but not a big deal.
Not only that, but the CIA created the crack epidemic and US drug manufacturers created the opioid epidemic.
Harmful policy and deliberate mass killing are not the same thing.
The War on Drugs has caused real damage, but comparing incarceration and social harm to governments intentionally slaughtering civilians is exactly the kind of false equivalence that makes serious discussions impossible.
I am thinking you are ignorant of history.
https://lawrepository.ualr.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2106&context=lawreview
The War on Drugs was a purposely attack on minorities. You can’t whitewash the truth away. We attacked our fellow citizens to appease racists.
The results speak for themselves. Millions of lives lost and you hand waiving it away. You don’t get to do this. You don’t get to ignore the militarization and invasion of our police forces. You don’t get to decide that these people don’t matter.
The War on Drugs absolutely caused serious harm and disproportionately impacted minority communities. That’s widely documented. But acknowledging that doesn’t make it equivalent to governments intentionally killing civilians. Harmful policy and discriminatory enforcement are not the same thing as deliberate mass slaughter. Conflating those two things is exactly the kind of false equivalence that derails serious discussion.
Are you actually arguing that the War on Drugs is equivalent to governments intentionally slaughtering their own civilians?Because acknowledging that the policy caused harm and was discriminatory doesn’t make it the same category of wrongdoing as deliberate mass killing.
Iran might have been in the signal chats. I’m gonna take them at their word.
AFAIK we currently have no idea, if the tunnel system of the enrichment facility has been destroyed or not. Meaning, if they even have access to 50kg of enriched uranium, it will be quite easy for them to assemble that on a rocket that reaches Tel Aviv. And if the Chinese deliver some nice intercontinental rockets, DC will be gone, too.
