From what I’m reading, the troubles should start to pick up now; harbors being quieter, truckers not having work, … Are any shortages noticeable yet?
ETA:
Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-a-virus
Businesses have been filling their inventories. That’s ending now. Economic pain in terms of job losses should accelerate now. It will still take up to a few weeks before inventories run empty, and the full impact hits consumers. Even a full reversal of Trumpism couldn’t prevent knock-on effects that last into next year.
I think shortages will be short-lived as companies and retailers just have to suck it up and pay more. People won’t be able to buy as much stuff, so layoffs and a recession or depression are likely, but there’s not much I can think of doing to prepare for that.
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Food and housing are the only classes many have left.
Remember when COVID supply-chain difficulties made prices shoot up? And several years after that situation peaked prices STILL haven’t gone back to normal? This gonna be like that except COMPLETELY unnecessary, brought to you entirely by MAGA. Remember it when the midterm elections come up in 2 years. That won’t be difficult cuz it will still be going on and will be even worse.
Well some products will go down at first, the ones they can’t sell to other countries any more the supply will skyrocket until they cut production to reduce their losses. So perishable things like certain food, will possibly decrease for a season, then will go up higher/possibly “sky rocker” as when you produce less your profits are lower, so they will have to mark them up / some people will just stop farming. The possibility of the bees dying out seems more worrisome than the tarrifs long term though for many foods.
I work retail and we’ve had an onslaught of freight. Until there is ever a day when I come into work and I’m told or I see that there is nothing to stock - I’ll be concerned. Until then, what is there to prepare for?
I work retail and we’ve had an onslaught of freight
How’s going now? Any noticeable change yet?
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Okay doomer.
we’ve had an onslaught of freight
IDK how long it takes from the ports to you, but that should end in a few days. Keep us updated!
Ok doomer.
Not yet here. Maybe a few more weeks?
Canadian here… I’m preparing by buying puts on SPY
Hehe same
Are they gonna blow up some vessels? What doe she negative number mean? XD
The negative number means that far fewer ships are arriving in LA than at the same time last year.
Curling up into the fetal position and crying in between protests.
OP’s data shows the U.S. is stocking up tremendously in April, and then maintaining year-on-year patterns after that with a slight downturn that doesn’t even compensate for April’s glut.
I haven’t seen this data before but it shows the opposite of the shortage I was expecting.
You seem to be misreading that.
Please correct me, then. The surprising moment came when I noticed the vertical axis is for year-on-year change and not raw tonnage.
Yes. It goes from much higher than last year to much lower.
My read was that it was much higher to prepare inventory for the tariff shock
I think the issue is you’re waiting for the negatives to be equal to the surplus of one month, when the trend (from three points of data so do with that what you will) is negative. So, ostensibly, after enough months of negatives, there will be much, much more negative than positives.
Yup that’s exactly what I was doing, and I was surprised that the negatives won’t catch up until at least 3 months which brings us to July at the earliest.
Edit: Thanks General I didn’t notice it’s in weeks. So we’re looking at early June which is closer to what we were all thinking.
- The chart shows weeks, not months.
- It shows scheduled arrivals of vessels in LA. It may not be safe to equate that to freight arriving in the US.
Yes, and then, or rather now, incoming shipping collapses.
Cargo container bookings are down 60%. 60%! Thats an incredible drop, and it really hasn’t even started yet.
I’m ready for a “Hot Tariff Summer.”
I’ve been on a no-purchase kick for a while now, even before HitlerPig was elected. We have become such a culture of consumerism that it had started to disgust me. I’ve embraced the “re-use, repair, re-sell, recycle” philosophy. If i need something, i try to buy it used.
I’m a guitarist, so I buy used guitars when i get a good deal, clean them up, fix them, and re-sell them at a small profit. It puts a beautiful instrument back into service, allows a poor or new musician an opportunity to have an inexpensive but quality instrument, and its music makes the world a slightly more beautiful place.
I even went on a much-needed diet (down 80 pounds so far, and still going), and decreasing my consumption, and spending less money with evil corporations, is a primary motivation.
So let the shelves be empty of cheap Chinese-made consumer goods, i don’t need them, despite how much advertising and marketing tells me i do.
The silver lining is that if tariffs become a longterm thing, people will be forced to come around to my way of thinking, and when the tariffs finally end, corporations may be surprised to find that nobody needs their shiny crap any more.
clean them up, fix them,
As someone else that does “clean up” and “fix them” for other non-instrument items, are you concerned about your supply/cost of replacement parts and supplies? Most of mine come from China.
Somewhat, mostly strings. Most of the rest is just adjustments, using tools I already have. I still have a fair stock of strings, but I was thinking of buying a bunch more to hold me over for a while.
Cleaning is also a big part, but that’s easy.
I suppose if it gets bad, and I need to buy tuners and bridges, etc., I can buy a few junk guitars, and cannibalize them for parts.
I can buy a few junk guitars, and cannibalize them for parts.
This is a future I see on my side too. The price will likely go up for our services to support this for a supply of parts though. If we get to that point, you won’t be the only one buying up junk guitars as others will be buying them for the same reason. So the price of junk guitars is going to go up too.
I expect used items of all types are going to increase - clothes, appliances, toys, etc. Goodwill and other thrift shops are about to have the biggest boom period of their history.
Most importantly stock up on toilet papers to resell for massive filthy profits, take advantage of filthy buts!! With that money you can send your children through college and save lives and end world hunger! even fund research to cure cancer!!.
A lot of toilet paper is actually manufactured in the US which is why us shutting things down during Covid impacted supply so much, the tariffs won’t impact TP since it’s domestic production.
when price of other tariffed products, equipment, staff salary goes up. It means your expenses are more even if your business is not affected by tariffs. ie prices will go up even for non-tariffs items.
Imagine if trump only tariffed imported chicken, but my business is selling pen and pencils which are not tariffed, I would still have to raise prices of pen and pencil because the price of my food just went up, I would need to make more money to eat chicken meat and have the same purchasing power . No one is going to reduce their income/profit/salary/purchasing power in fact people will take advantage and increase.
Toilet paper shortage in stores was a global phenomenon. It’s seems like during times of crisis, people buy toilet paper. The grocery stores just weren’t prepared for everybody to buy toilet paper at the same time. They couldn’t keep up with the restocking.
There was no real shortage in toilet paper in terms of production.
It occurred just like gasoline shortages occur. If the media doesn’t make headlines that suggest buying as much as you can immediately, even if there is a supply chain problem things can adjust to meet normal demands. But when everyone takes all the stock at the same time, even a running production can’t keep up with that demand in a just-in-time system. I experienced a local fuel shortage before because of news of a damaged oil pipeline far away, and gas became unavailable for a few days, then started filling back up, all long before the pipeline issue would have affected us.
“A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it.”
during times of crisis, people buy toilet paper
Well yes. How else would you clean the fan when shit hits it?
It was a global impact, the US is a significant exporter of toilet paper. 99% of our domestic use is locally manufactured AND we export a considerable volume to the rest of the world.
Believe it or not TP is big business here in the US and one of a few industries where we still have a lot of traditional manufacturing jobs. Georgia-Pacific and Kimberly Clark for example.
Georgia-Pacific LLC is an American pulp and paper company based in Atlanta, Georgia,[2] and is one of the world’s largest manufacturers and distributors of tissue, pulp, paper, toilet and paper towel dispensers, packaging, building products and related chemicals, and other forest products—largely made from its own timber.[3][4] Since 2005, it has been an independently operated and managed subsidiary of Koch Industries. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia-Pacific
Kimberly-Clark shares are mainly held by institutional investors (The Vanguard Group, BlackRock, State Street Corporation, and others).[32] Its subsidiaries include Kimberly-Clark Professional. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimberly-Clark
Hail corporate.
I’m soupmaxxing
Already have everything I should need for the next few years besides consumables. Considering buying a few buckets of emergency food from Costco. Other than that, bending over and lubing up because I can’t keep a cactus alive, much less crops.
Most of what I grow is for flavour rather than sustenance, pretty limited space. Doubt I will survive for long off garlic, bay leaves and rosemary with a sprinkling of mint.
I’m far less worried about the imminent supply shock to the economy and far more worried about the long term damage to things like the FDA. We’ve decided we’re going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don’t trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume. I do have a solid amount of food in my house, and if shelves start emptying I think I’ll be okay for a bit, but that’ll pass. I can’t really leave this country, so I need to be planning for longer term problems too.
It’s quite crazy to hear that the US is about to force UK and EU to buy more chlorinated chicken, and then hear that US will stop salmonela testing while negotiating this.
We’ve decided we’re going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don’t trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume.
Farmers’ markets (or direct from a local farm/butcher) are probably your best bet for what meat you do buy, if you don’t go full veg
Ive been stockpiling canned proteins like tuna, chicken, clams, oysters, etc. even Spam. They may not be trustworthy in the future, but they are right now, so stack them up.
I can make a cheap but killer soup with a can of chicken, some ramen, and herbs, and i can even grow the herbs myself.
I have this fear that we won’t even be able to trust fruits and vegetables. The most common food contaminations in the news always seem to be unwashed lettuce and such, which makes sense because of fertilizers.
I’ve been preparing for some kind of problem with produce for a few years, I just had a gut feeling so I built a vegetable garden 3 years ago. Also have been planting fruit trees everywhere.
While the nation was functioning, meat and dairy would have been regulated by the USDA, not the FDA.
Been practicing cooking lentils, Bean’s and rice since middle of last year.
I understand what lentils and rice are good for, but what on earth did Ben do to deserve being cooked?
Lol, fixed. Sorry Ben!
Huh. What of Bean’s are you cooking?
Dried black beans in an instant pot. Very cheap, very filling, and versatile. I like them in a chili, or Yucatan style black bean soup
Most aren’t even aware that this is coming.
A large portion of the rest are in denial. So many people can only learn through the lens of their own experience
I can’t wait to watch all the Trump-suckers loose their shit when they find out it’s Trump’s fault. If they can actually comprehend it as true, that is.
They lost touch with reality a long time ago. They will blame Democrats, or Canada, or Aliens.
They’ll just say it’s Biden’s fault…
That is also my knee-jerk reaction, but with Tariffs it’s a pretty direct correlation to Trump now. Hopefully this will be what finally breaks him?
They’ll say it, but they won’t truly believe it. They’ll know the truth, or at least those that still possess some human awareness. There will always be those that are irredeemable, you can’t worry about them, they’re just lost.
Casual Qur’anic comment, lol. 😅
narrator: they did not
