Will they lobby for laws that prohibit Linux or make it difficult to install? What actions might they take in the future?
Embrace, extend, extinguish.
SQL Server runs on Linux. Azure supports Linux. The next step is to extend into their own distro, get everyone using it, then drop support for mainstream Linux.
Will it work? Maybe. They’ll have to make Microsoft Linux more attractive than Debian and Red Hat.
What do you think Ubuntu is? Microsoft’s touch in it is so obvious that only a fool would miss it.
systemd anyone?
/s
Where does LP work these days, anyway?
The desktop has been losing market for a while. I feel Windows is already under serious threat (if not already in the minority) when you think about all the devices that mainstream audiences orbit around (phones, tablets, portable consoles, etc), often using the Linux kernel. Only about a third of most website traffic comes from desktops.
Many of the people who frequently use Windows desktop do so because of their job, and often avoid using it outside of work as much as possible, since it feels like… well, work.
Microsoft has been desperately trying to appeal to those other bigger sectors of the pie and has failed every time.
PC Gaming was one sector they had advantage on, yet that has already started to crumble thanks to Valve. I feel that MS will just try to push for integrating their xbox with Windows OS more and more…
I feel it’s a battle with many fronts, since PCs have many uses… so MS is likely to run their typical spiel: copy what the competition are doing and try to centralize/integrate it with their OS in a way that gives them an advantage, as they are famous for doing.
Another sector they can do this is with the WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux)… they could turn Windows into a frontend for running Linux apps… so if Linux apps became popular, they could try to advertise Windows as the “best” way to run Linux software without losing the full first party support of legacy Windows software.
Well the Xbox app that suspends Windows processes is a reaction to this threat. The threat not being Linux in general but SteamOS and Proton specifically. I don’t think anyone imagined it would be gaming that would usher in the era of Linux but it does seem that that will be the case.
Well there is the 9/11 change that may be happening soon: https://techrights.org/n/2025/08/26/The_UEFI_9_11_Part_I_Introduction_to_Impending_Catastrophe_Micr.shtml
Its possible a LOT of linux machines wont work after this date.
Fortunately I’m safe from that bc right after I assembled my current PC (even before moving the distro to it; yes, moving, not “installing”), I entered BIOS and disabled secure boot, IPM 2.0 and pretty much everything Spyware related. Only then I booted Clonezilla and extracted from the backup image. Since I had done the same on the old PC in BIOS, that means my Arch was never installed with SB and IPM active.
On top of that the last update of BIOS nearly broke it, so I flashed it back to the more stable version the motherboard came with. And since I have no intention to update BIOS, I’m safe from all that trouble.
Hopefully people who use SecureBoot have plans in place
I use Secure Boot on all my machines but I just use my own keys with Foxboron’s wonderful
sbctlutility instead of the hacky shim/MOK method most distributions use.Oh, neat! I had no idea something like this existed!
I just disabled SecureBoot on my end.
Hopefully!
Another funny thing is that there is speculation because firmware developers…many not actually be checking the dates at all in some cases. Cause that would mean extra work. So its very possible this date comes and goes, nothing happens to cheap devices.
That was based on conversations im seeing in other forums. Not sure honestly.
Either way, we will find out soon!
Just my guess here, but…
The desktop/laptop sort of form factor is associated in people’s minds with unlocked bootloaders. People expect to be able to install Linux on them if they want to. Tablets, game systems, and other sorts of consumer electronics, not so much. I’m thinking Microsoft will do what it can to push hardware manufacturers and the software industry as a whole more in the direction of the kinds of devices that consumers already expect to be locked down like tablets or game systems that are “streaming” game systems. And that way, the bootloader will prevent folks from switching to Linux.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7lI2fyyleY&pp=ygUVZmx5dGVjaCBMaW51eCB3aW5kb3dz
spoiler
It’s an Apil fools video. Not real
Make a version of Office that works on Linux natively.
That works on their version of linux.
Why? Office is such shit.
It is (unfortunately) their primary foothold into the market. Microsoft also knows this which is why some many other projects at Microsoft have been killed and absorbed by the Microsoft office team. They have a cannabalistic corporate culture. Its clear that at Microsoft the only threat to Microsoft… Is Microsoft… No one else on the radar registers.
Damnit Jim I’m a doctor, not an actor
The question is also what would US government do. You miss the fact that windows-x86 complex is self supporting cornerstone of US soft and economic power, also spying. What will they do to prop up that monopoly?
It’s mobile devices that are eroding Windows market share on desktops, not Linux.
Linux already dominates the server space, it runs the internet and super computing, but it will NEVER be a threat to Microsoft on desktops.
Never say never
I think it is clear that it’s just a matter of time that a faster, more secure, free and open source operating system will win over a worse alternative.
The vast majority of desktop users don’t give two flips about security, nor freedom, they don’t even know what those things are and don’t care to be informed.
I’ve even seen a few (on reddit) asking for Linux to support giving kernel level permissions to applications, so they can play a few videogames, they are fine with having rootkits on their PC, that’s the level of “care” they have.
But that’s ok, Linux is already a de-facto “monopoly” on the server side, the most important one, it doesn’t need to win over also desktops.
Add more spyware, isn’t that the de facto mentality of Microsoft? Add more spyware so they can force you to buy more crap, al for the “greater good”. Oh yeah, and most likely try and take over secureboot with some Microsoft crap allowed only, “for to protect the children”.
Some others have already said the “embrace, extend, extinguish” but here’s my take on it. Pair it with Secure Boot and TPM 2.0
- Embrace: Secure Boot can already work with Linux, how lucky! This gives them not exactly control, but authoritative denial over your boot process and hardware.
- Extend: This is the part that remains to be seen. If they feel threatened enough by the shift in the gaming landscape, mind you not over losing out on sales or the hearts of gamers or anything, but again control, they may begin to make Linux offerings. A concession to allow an honest to god, thick Office client on Linux would certainly appeal to some. Adobe gets in on that action to back them up with Photoshop and Activision with Call of Duty, etc.
- Extinguish: TPM 2.0. One of the less talked about features of this is remote attestation (“Remote attestation allows changes to the user’s computer to be detected by authorized parties. For example, software companies can identify unauthorized changes to software, including users modifying their software to circumvent commercial digital rights restrictions.” - DRM). We’re already seeing this with CoD on Windows. They’ll allow you to run much requested Windows software on Linux, even provide direct support possibly, but at the cost of not precisely control but authoritative denial. Which still works out to be control in most ways since if you want to use the software and they are to remotely attest, they can also insist that part of that attestation is you running some sort of telemetry or not running software they disagree with.
The reason I think this route is highly likely is because it plays well with uninformed consumers. To the untrained eye it looks like they’re giving ground and actually allowing for broader support of their software while effectively gaining control over the environment once again and removing the biggest benefits of running FOSS on your system.
Also worth noting that they own Github, which puts them in a position to disrupt a huge amount of Linux infrastructure if they ever feel like it. They might also pull some weird move like trying to buy Canonical or something like that.
This is a good point. I’ve been trying to make it clear in a lot of my predictions that Microsoft doesn’t want or even need full control, just enough. They don’t even need to do anything particular here other than continue to manage github with their current level of incompetence.
Was trying to source an article here, wasn’t there just an outage or some other major issue a few days ago? Anyways …
I think what’s missing is the author of pulseaudio and systemd among other “modern” Linux tech (I.e. adopted by many popular distros) is a Microsoft employee.
I’m going to go with “nothing”. They blend their numbers but I’d be willing to bet the amount of money they make selling direct licenses is tiny. (Tiny at their scale, I’d take it any day.) The whole OEM business isn’t even huge to them. If they start losing the enterprise market, then I’m sure they would throw down, but you and everyone you know installing Linux would be fine. Have you noticed how easy it is to steal windows and how there seem to be very few repercussions? That says volumes about what they think the revenue potential of that market is…
MS already doesn’t have a monopoly in any meaningful sense anymore.
- https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share#monthly-200901-202507 - in early 2009, almost 95% of web usage was from Windows, by now it is at around 28%, no longer even the most popular OS, which is now Android around 42%
- https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-200901-202507 - even looking only at the desktop and ignoring the shift to mobile devices, Windows fell from ~95% to ~72% during the same time period, mostly losing to macOS but more recently also Linux
Windows isn’t the main way Microsoft makes money anymore anyway…
They might not make much money from windows but it’s still a very important point of control. If they control the os then they can control what’s pre-installed. They can control what office suit, cloud service, ai slop, spyware to use before any other conpetitor has a chance to advertise.
Their only chance there was the late 90s to early 2000s. MS is one company compared to the totality of mega corporations using Linux and MS also uses a lot of Linux. More money at play in the server market than the general desktop OS market. Linux is the server OS
The US government increasingly uses Linux. Other countries pick up Linux at a faster rate than the US. A higher percentage of people use MacOS today than 20 years ago











