Blowing up oil production could be argued as carbon negative.
No. Complete opposite. Not just full emissions from the buring oil, but replacement oil “needs” to be dug up.
Wells burn for a long time
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We’ll combat global warming with nuclear winter! 🙃
Throw another hotdog on the uranium! It’s almost time for The President’s Daily Truthcast.
Why are you under the impression that there is a world war coming? What specific events? I’m genuinely asking.
The global empire of capital is trapped in two losing wars of attrition and keeps on desperately escalating in both cases?
Why are you asking me a question? I just asked you one. Why would that instigate a world war? I’m asking you because I don’t know, not because I’m trying to argue with you.
There’s a few of tracks leading to this actually. You got cracks in old alliances forming, a mostly failed attempt at revanchism from Russia and the USA getting it’s fingers stuck in a mouse trap, and many many more geopolitical factors that heighten tension between states. Then on another track, you have a worsening climate situation that is MUCH more serious than most western leaders are daring to admit, this ties back to the first as states will begin to take drastic efforts to control worsening conditions. Finally there has been a technological shift in a variety of ways, drones of course. Along that same vein, China has quietly been catching up to the US in terms of military tech, this isn’t as flashy but it is monumentous.
Honestly, I wrote my comment with a questioning tone because I wasn’t sure if your original comment was being sarcastic or something. I guess people don’t understand that this Iran war is much more serious than Vietnam and Afghanistan put together, on top of the Ukraine war still ongoing.
If the strait isn’t open in the next few months, we could be seeing outbreaks of global starvation unlike anything seen in decades. That’s just the beginning and I wish I was exaggerating
Ok, so the strait doesn’t open. Who joins whose side?
It’d probably play out as Iran, China, Russia (eventually North Korea) v. US, Israel - then all the dick swinging and pissing contest and empty threats would push UK, France and Germany in but they’d just be hoping US would be doing all the heavy lifting because honestly they want to be the “heroes” anyway so why not. Then some bickering and hootin and hollering would happen between Russia, China and US and nuclear threats begin. It’d likely be a stalemate as it’d be considered MAD (mutually assured destruction) but who knows with these crazy assholes.
The line has already been drawn. The only meaningful wildcards are the Turks and the Egyptians. The question you should be asking is how long until the gulf monarchies run out of staple grain? That hits much sooner than the global fertilizer crisis, we won’t feel the business end of that until harvest season in the northern hemisphere
And then do we all die?
Now you’re starting to get the gravity of the situation
USA is not with Ukraine, if you imply that. Trump is a russian asset and he did lift sanctions from russia just this week, alongside with ramping oil prices to the roof.
Unless you assume that russia is losing the attrition war (which is very unlikely with @lemmy.ml), your comment doesn’t make any sense.
I do not have the patience to have this stupid fight today. Ukraine is definitely a US proxy. Every president since George W Bush has been preparing for and escalating this war. It’s easy to get confused if you get distracted by the puppet show instead of watching the flow of dollars and bombs.
The war in Iran has sealed Ukraine’s fate. All the cards they had left to play have now been neutralized. It doesn’t matter how much propaganda you believe about the Ukraine war because it’s coming to a rapid conclusion
Alright, I’ll bite. How does the war with Iran “seal Ukraine’s fate”?
3 factors:
- Whether or not you believe Russia’s economy was “just about to collapse” from sanctions, that is all up in smoke now
- The Western armories were already running bare. Now, Ukraine will probably never receive another air defense interceptor. There won’t be any tomahawks to give even if they got some working ground launchers.
- Ukraine’s European backers were already under tremendous economic strain from having the highest energy prices in the world. They are EXTREMELY exposed to this current energy shock.
The combined forces of the West were already losing before suffering this massive economic shock and gigantic military expenditure
Those three are all real factors, but I think you are exaggerating their size and importance.
The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.
Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity. I imagine you’re right that it’s worse for Ukraine to lose access to American air defense systems than it is for Russia to lose access to Iranian Shaheds.
The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.
The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed. The Russians believe that if they just keep going, the Europeans will get bored and give up, while Ukrainians believe that they can keep going longer than the Russians because they are supported by a European economy that is not in an unsustainable “war mode”.
Who is right is up to us, and given that every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law, it is in the interest of future European peace to ensure that the Ukrainians are right - and to make that as obvious as possible to the Russians so that peace negotiations become possible.
New day, new patience apparently.
The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.
According to who? The sanctions can’t be “on the verge” of working and also not be that important at the same time. We’re talking about DOUBLE revenue on a per-barrel basis (so far!). Sanctions work by slowly choking out the supply of dollars until an economy suffocates. A flood of new dollars DOES completely reverse years of sanctions. So unless you believe the sanctions were not working (which I do by the way) then this matters a lot.
Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity.
Do you remember years ago when the Europeans themselves came out and said the Russians were outproducing the entire West in artillery shells 3-to-1? Do you think that only applies to artillery shells? The West has DEINDUSTRIALIZED after decades of neglect, outsourcing, corruption, and financialization. The energy crisis in Europe is only shifting this into high gear.
Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced
What evidence is there for this? You think the Russians have only made 2 Oreshnik missles? You think they are only making a few hundred Gerans a week?
The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.
This is honestly laughable. Europe is dying under the weight of their own vassalage. What do you think it means to have the highest energy prices in the world? How does that effect an industrial economy? Why did Volkswagen stop production at their main plant for the first time ever? Now it’s about to get MUCH WORSE because Europe was extremely dependent on Quatari LNG. That LNG isn’t waiting for the strait to open, it’s already not being produced and liquefied, leaving a permanent gap in the world supply.
The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed
Well you could say that. The West believes it’s own propaganda which has been propping up this war for 3 years when it was already lost (the writing has been on the wall since the ill-fated Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive in '23). The pattern of big huge hype about any territorial gains, trailing off into ashamed whimpers in the press, has been followed in every disastrous “media counteroffensive” since: Kursk, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and now Dnipropetrovsk. THE UKRAINIANS ARE CRITICALLY SHORT OF INFANTRY AND HAVE BEEN FOR YEARS. LOOK AT REPORTS FROM ANY GROUND-LEVEL COMMANDER ON THE UKR SIDE. NO AMOUNT OF PRESS-GANGED RETIREES CAN CHANGE THIS.
Who is right is up to us
Spoken like a European
every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law
Was it against international law when the Banderites engaged with their war against Russian speaking civilians in the Donbass for 8 years? Do you still not know about this because of how completely the wool has been pulled over your eyes by the western media? It’s game over. The media narratives are collapsing under the weight of their own failure. This conversation doesn’t matter any more for the fate of the current war, I’m only bothering so we can all spot the patterns if and when the West attempts to do this bullshit again.
IMO WWIII started with the invasion of Ukraine.
Now we have both US and Russia participating in war.
If china takes Taiwan then you’ll have the big 3 which will effect pretty much all other countries one way or another.
Trump has taken the US as far out of the war in Ukraine as the American people will let him, it’s not great for peace, we should all have ramped up the aid a lot earlier, but to say that the US is participating in the war… that’s really stretching it.
That’s not a world war, it’s a handful of regional conflict level wars.
A world war is defined by the scale and involvement level. The world wars reshaped continents and put most of the world on wartime production footing… We’re very, very far from that
Taiwan had the ability to kick off a world war, because the whole world relies on TSMC. But the fabs being built in China, the US, and the EU seem to me to be a compromise between the power blocks - once they’re completed NATO will probably just let China invade Taiwan without lifting a finger
WWIII isn’t a big concern of mine… The conditions just aren’t unfolding that way
Multiple brush fire wars which are starting to interlink, both wars starting to pull in other countries through alliances, countries forming up new alliances to protect themselves.
This video explains well https://youtu.be/V--ZqMGjNVs
yeah but what about out cabron budget?
I think the red hot chili peppers blew through that in 2002
There’s always room in the budget for one more cabrón
Te Debo una cabrón
We don’t have the room for AI either and that’s not stopping anyone.
as long as we lose it will be ok. we as in humanity.
Priorities:
political-motivation ALWAYS outranks objectivity, among the political.
Welcome to Accelerationism’s grass-roots edition.
_ /\ _
Just for fun, look up how much the US army pollutes.
Reducing population goes a long way towards helping though. It all depends on just how apocalyptic the world war is
Eh, a few old demented psychopaths armed with nuclear warheads? I’d wager to say pretty apocalyptic.
Bethesda this IS NOT what I wanted for Fallout 5
Presumably the impact would be greatest if the population in areas with highest per capita usage were reduced first, right?
You’d probably need to put the oil out of reach of the survivors.
We were never gonna get the carbon thing under control.
Not while we still allow psychopaths to be in control.
Not while we still allow them to be alive.
True enough. But even if we had gotten a magic benevolent dictator decades ago, the damage was already done. We’re just piling it on at this point. In some aspects, maybe a speed run into hell will work out better than a long braking. Better overall, but still a disaster.
That level of futility is counter productive.
it’s not comments like these that are holding us back
…but the mindset is.
Seems most things are. Just being realistic.
if we had gotten a solution years ago, we would experience a fraction of the effects.
No. The less carbon that is added to the atmosphere, the less severe the damage will be. Economic collapse will only increase the motivation to rely on cheap and dirty fuels, not to mention the incentives to cut down all the trees and exterminate all the wildlife.
Less total carbon. It’s morbid, but burning ourselves out faster ends up with a smaller number than if we persist in this. If you go with some assumption that economic collapse allows us to survive… well I guess you have a point.
Sure we will!
Human-driven climate change will accelerate the Holocene mass extinction, ending Homo Sapiens - and with us will go all carbon-producing industry.
The carbon thing finds its equilibrium after some tens of thousands of years, and the climate stabilizes some hundreds of thousands or millions of years after that. And then, provided the biosphere wasn’t damaged beyond its ability to compensate or regulate for the increased solar luminosity that has occurred since the last “Hot-House Earth” climate, it will recover and heal.
And if not, then we’ve killed everything down to the tardigrades, and probably them too, and we end up with a runaway greenhouse Venus type situation some 0.3 - 0.6 billion years early.
Correct. Oligarchs are responsible for the murder of billions of humans. Absurd, disgusting, shameful… yet, wholly predictable.
as A physics channel person as said, countries have largely abandoned global climate change for a while now. they are mostly going YOLO with oil now. plus there are subtle acts of undermining/sabotaging environmental activism for years, like funding “carbon footprint companies” so they dont have to reduce thier emissions, and funding “eco-activists” you hear in the news defacing public properties to incite ire against protestors.(mona lisa, gluing yourself to cars,etc)
Some science channels were called out for promoting these companies as a way of reducing your carbon footprint, luckily they stopped once they found out.
And just like carbon credits, they’ll just throw money at it to “offset” the carbon budget.
Nature bats last. Climate change is the real winner in all these wars.
And great mother earth once the surface no longer supports human life.
Orrr, keep up with me on the optimism, it would be like post WWII in which the pendulum will swing the other way.
Oh god no…you’re suggesting ANOTHER round of boomers??? THATS the reward for all this suffering??? We haven’t even gotten rid of all the old boomers yet!
Post WWII did a few ok things for social policy, but didn’t do much at all to reduce GHG emissions - except maybe China’s one child policy and a more natural reduction in fertitlity in many other countries. but despite those , global population has still gone up 3-4x in that period.
Western world did begin to reduce coal usage but greedily replaced it with petroleum products. Lots of them also axed efficient public transport systems like intercity railways and local tram/streetcar systems in favour of inefficient but more convenient (up to the point of congestion) personal automobiles and quite staggering numbers (billions/trillions/fuckillions) of passenger km of aviation. I’m struggling to imagine a less efficient way to organise people and space that gave rise to that. Maybe we could have everyone live in Europe, work in Australia and go to USA for groceries.
Only major economic recessions like 2008 or covid actually cause emissions to fall in any material way - and they don’t last close to long enough. Almost ever other clean tech thing of efficiency improvement is offset by increasing demand.
A few low density countries like Iceland and Norway were able to build enough hydro power to at least get clean electricity but , Norway? erm hardly anti-fossil fuel. Hydro is deemed impractical/inhumane in denser populated countries where they refuse to flood out all the valley dwellers.
No problem! Let’s craft a new Accord! They’re fun!
